Uganda Food Security Outlook Update, December 2017
Minimal (IPC Phase 1) likely in most areas with average second season harvest
Most areas of Uganda received average rainfall during the September to December second rainy season, though rainfall deficits were recorded in some western and central regions. Overall, total national production is estimated to be average. Staple food prices have declined further with the harvest and are near the five-year average in most markets. The ongoing harvest, and favorable food prices, are supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes in bimodal areas.
In Karamoja, sorghum production was average while maize production was below average. Food security has seasonally improved, although most poor households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least May. The lean season is expected to begin in March and households in Rupa, Nadunget, and Tapac, who experienced more significant crop losses, are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the March to June lean season.
The daily arrival rate of South Sudanese seeking refuge in Uganda continues to decline: roughly 120 people arrived daily in December, compared to 2,000 per day in late 2016. WFP continues to provide a full ration to all South Sudanese refugees who arrived after July 2015 and most are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). Humanitarian assistance is funded and prepositioned to meet needs through April 2018 and most South Sudanese refugees are expected to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through April. After April, in the absence of assistance, refugees would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).