Below-average rainfall and armyworm infestation threaten harvest prospects
• First season rainfall has been below average and erratically distributed in most areas. Planting was delayed in eastern and northern bimodal areas and in Karamoja and green harvests are now likely to arrive 3 to 4 weeks later than normal in these areas. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in eastern bimodal areas and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely in Moroto, Napak, and Kaabong through July.
• Armyworm has been reported in more than 60 districts in Uganda, and field reports indicate that maize fields have been widely infested in some areas. Crop damage has also been observed in high-production areas. Based on field visits and key informant information, FEWS NET estimates that first season maize production could be nearly 40 percent below average as a result of the combined impact of the armyworm damage and below average rainfall.
• As of April 10, more than 830,000 people from South Sudan have sought refuge in Uganda, over 100,000 of whom arrived in March 2017. Funding has recently been secured to guarantee the continuation of full rations to South Sudanese refugees throughout the outlook period. With this assistance, most will be able to meet their basic food needs, but will remain unable to fund typical livelihood activities. This population is expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through September.