Uganda + 2 more

Uganda: Food Security Outlook, October 2021 to May 2022

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Situation Report
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Below-normal production in northern Uganda marginally improves food security outcomes

KEY MESSAGES

  • In Karamoja, 2021 harvests are significantly below average following an estimated 50 to 70 percent crop loss; as such, food stocks will not be replenished to normal levels. While harvesting has been completed in parts of Nakapiripirit, Napak, and Moroto, delayed harvests have yet to start in Kotido and Kaabong. Loss of livestock assets through raids is expected to worsen food insecurity. Unfavorable terms of trade are unable to mitigate the negative impacts, poor households are employing consumption coping strategies and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist through May 2022.

  • In bimodal areas, erratic cumulative below average rainfall is supporting favorable crop growth in spatially random areas while in others heavy rains have led to crop loss and destruction of property. Below normal consecutive harvest likely in northern Uganda where income and food sources are expected to remain below normal levels driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Slightly below normal harvests in other bimodal area expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

  • WFP intends to implement 40, 60 and 70 percent ration cuts in November following a geographic needs-based resource prioritization by settlement. It is FEWS Net’s analysis that despite further ration cuts, households are still accessing sufficient food and income sources to support area-level Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes through May 2022. This represents a revision to FEWS NET’s previous analysis that refugee settlements were likely in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!). While it is still expected that assistance is playing a key role in preventing worse outcomes, available information, including low GAM prevalence, suggests that refugees are not sustaining Crisis-level consumption deficits. While a smaller percentage are likely in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!), most are expected to minimally meet their food needs through assistance and some access to land and other income-earning opportunities such that Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) is now considered the most likely outcome.