Uganda Food Security Outlook, October 2020 to May 2021

Situation Report
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Economic re-opening, low food prices, and new harvests improve food security in late 2020


• Across most of Uganda, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are anticipated through May 2021. Low to near-average food prices, the second season harvest in November/December, and above-normal livestock production will likely provide minimally adequate food and income for most household to meet their basic food and non-food needs. In urban areas and some rural districts that have been worst affected by recent floods, however, some households will most likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Among these households, sluggish economic activity, flood-induced crop losses, and high bean prices will continue to limit household income and dietary diversity.

• In Karamoja, food insecurity has improved to Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The green and dry harvests are replenishing household and market stocks, while broadly favorable terms of trade are enhancing household purchasing power. However, household income remains below normal, especially among households that rely on livestock and milk sales. These sales remain limited by localized quarantine measures and market closures to limit the spread of Foot and Mouth Disease and COVID-19. Heightened levels of insecurity and cattle rustling are also compelling farmers to keep animals in protected kraals. By early 2021, deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected. Many households will likely have food consumption gaps during the lean season, since food stocks will be depleted and local staple food prices are projected to rise to above-average levels.

• In late 2020, humanitarian food assistance coupled with the second season harvest is expected to sustain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes across the refugee settlements. However, food supplies and income sources among refugee households remain below normal and coping capacity has been eroded by COVID-19 restrictions. Deterioration to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) is expected between February and May, based on depleted household food stocks, limited income sources, and anticipated reductions in ration sizes.