Uganda + 2 more

Uganda Food Security Outlook, June 2022 to January 2023

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Inflation, poor production to drive sustained food insecurity in Karamoja,Teso,and the greater north

KEY MESSAGES

• Due to below-average rainfall through the end of June, first season bimodal harvests in most of the greater northern Uganda and the Teso subregion are delayed and are expected to be below average. As a result, most poor rural households have belownormal seasonal income from crop sales and limited availability of food stocks. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely widespread in the greater north and the Teso subregion and are expected to prevail through the start of second season harvest in November/December. Worst-affected households are experiencing a third consecutive below-average production season and, given limited remaining coping capacity, are likely facing consumption gaps and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

• The slow pace of economic recovery following impacts of COVID-19 restrictions last year is limiting access to typical income from daily wage opportunities and other sources. Additionally, rising prices of food and non-food items and general high inflation are constraining household purchasing power. As such, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely among the poorest households in both rural and urban areas.

• In Karamoja, insecurity is further constraining typical livelihood activities and food prices are significantly above average. Although the harvest in August/September will temporarily improve food security, crop production will likely be below normal and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to prevail through at least January due to significantly below-average purchasing power. Some of the poorest households are likely in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Poor food consumption has likely contributed to increased levels of acute malnutrition, particularly in Moroto and Kaabong districts.

• Given limited livelihood opportunities, below-average income-earning, below-normal first season crop production, and above-average prices, many refugees are expected to continue facing Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes throughout the projection period. Humanitarian food assistance rations equivalent to an estimated 40, 60, or 70 percent of households’ total energy needs are likely preventing more widespread consumption gaps despite limited funding and reduced rations in some settlements, with Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes likely at the area level.