Uganda Food Security Outlook, June 2018 to January 2019
Extended lean season likely in Karamoja, though Minimal (IPC Phase 1) expected in post-harvest period
• Rainfall was well above average during the March to May first season in bimodal areas and the first half of the April to September main season in Karamoja. In many areas, this has been the wettest March to May period on record. Heavy rainfall led to localized floods, landslides, and water logging, which in turn caused an unconfirmed number of deaths, displaced households, and damaged infrastructure and crops. These incidents are highly concerning, though not widespread. In general, the heavy and evenly-distributed rainfall has been beneficial for crop development, and above-average first season production is expected.
• In bimodal areas, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected throughout the projection period as poor households meet their basic food and non-food needs with above-average harvests and market purchases at below-average prices. In Karamoja, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely through July, an extended lean season. However, improvement to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) is expected after August when households harvest around four months of cereal and can purchase food at below-average prices.
• Due to continued conflict in South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, additional refugees from both countries are expected during the projection period. Ongoing humanitarian assistance remains the key food source among refugees and it is expected that most are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!), but would be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the absence of assistance