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Climate Hazards in Uganda’s Refugee-Hosting Districts.
INTRODUCTION
Uganda hosts one of the largest refugee populations in Africa,1 many of whom live in climate-sensitive landscapes highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited adaptive capacity, and high exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and prolonged dry spells.2 Over recent decades, the country has experienced more frequent and intense climate hazards, undermining livelihoods, food security, health, and infrastructure.34 Uganda’s climate is characterized by a bimodal rainfall pattern; however, this pattern has become increasingly unpredictable, with delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall that disrupts agricultural cycles.5
during key agricultural seasons. According to the Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA), conducted by IMPACT Initiatives in 2024, prolonged dry spells and heavy rains are the hazard types most frequently reported across West Nile and Southwestern regions. With accelerating climate change, they will remain dominant hazards, alongside a growing risk of flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.6
Key Messages
• Rainfall in Terego District is projected to increase moderately from about ~1,280 mm to ~ 1,426 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, the gains will be uneven across sub-counties. Areas such as Omugo, Ali Vu, Katrini, and Dadamu are expected to record slightly higher increases, while Uriama, Bileafe, and Odupi may see comparatively smaller gains.
• Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.6oC-3.0oC during the warmest months and driest quarters, suggesting hotter and more intense dry seasons, raising the likelihood of heat waves, higher evapotranspiration and reduced soil moisture.
• Seasonal drought remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) showing severe dryness across Odupi, and Omugo Sub-counties and refugee settlements, more specifically Imvepi Zone 1&2 and Rhino Spiri 2, Ocea 1, Ofua 6 and Omugo, leading to reduced crop productivity, affects soil moisture and water availability.
• Recurrent flooding affects sub-counties, such as Odupi, Ali Vu, Manibe, Uriama and Omugo, largely due to their low elevation, proximity to seasonal Enyau river and poorly drained terrain.