Attachments
Climate Hazards in Uganda’s Refugee-Hosting Districts.
INTRODUCTION
Uganda hosts one of the largest refugee populations in Africa,1 many of whom live in climate-sensitive landscapes highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited adaptive capacity, and high exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and prolonged dry spells.2 Over recent decades, the country has experienced more frequent and intense climate hazards, undermining livelihoods, food security, health, and infrastructure.34 Uganda’s climate is characterized by a bimodal rainfall pattern; however, this pattern has become increasingly unpredictable, with delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall that disrupts agricultural cycles.5
during key agricultural seasons. According to the Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA), conducted by IMPACT Initiatives in 2024, prolonged dry spells and heavy rains are the hazard types most frequently reported across West Nile and Southwestern regions. With accelerating climate change, they will remain dominant hazards, alongside a growing risk of flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.6
Key Messages
• Obongi District currently receives ~1,156 mm of annual rainfall, projected to increase moderately to ~ 1,312 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, rainfall gains are expected to be unevenly distributed across the district, with larger increases in Itula, Obongi Town Council, and Gimara sub-counties.
• Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.6-2.8°C during the warmest month and driest quarters respectively. This implies that already hot seasons will continue being hot, leading to heat stress for people, crops and livestock.
• Seasonal drought remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which capture rainfall deficits and vegetation stress respectively, showing severe dryness, particularly in Aliba, Gimara and Obongi Town Council. Palorinya Refugee Settlement also experiences extreme dryness which impacts on soil moisture availability, crop performance, rangeland conditions, and water access.
• Low-lying areas near the River Nile and seasonal rivers have the highest flood risk. Affected areas include Obongi Town and Palorinya Refugee Settlement. Affected areas include Obongi Town and Palorinya Refugee Settlement. Flooding during intense rainfall and river overflow can damage shelters, roads, and sanitation facilities, posing risks to livelihoods and public health for both host and refugee communities.