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Climate Hazards in Uganda’s Refugee-Hosting Districts.
INTRODUCTION
Uganda hosts one of the largest refugee populations in Africa,1 many of whom live in climate-sensitive landscapes highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited adaptive capacity, and high exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and prolonged dry spells.2 Over recent decades, the country has experienced more frequent and intense climate hazards, undermining livelihoods, food security, health, and infrastructure.34 Uganda’s climate is characterized by a bimodal rainfall pattern; however, this pattern has become increasingly unpredictable, with delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall that disrupts agricultural cycles.5
during key agricultural seasons. According to the Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA), conducted by IMPACT Initiatives in 2024, prolonged dry spells and heavy rains are the hazard types most frequently reported across West Nile and Southwestern regions. With accelerating climate change, they will remain dominant hazards, alongside a growing risk of flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.6
Key Messages
• Madi Okollo District currently receives ~1,138 mm of annual rainfall, projected to rise moderately to ~ 1,270 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, greater seasonal variability, prolonged dry spells and higher evapotranspiration are expected to intensify water stress, in sub counties that are densely populated such as Rhino.
• Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.6 -2.8oC during the warmest month and driest quarters. This will likely increase the frequency of very hot days, heat stress and seasonal drought risk, affecting crop productivity, livestock health and water availability.
• Seasonal drought remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which capture rainfall deficits and vegetation stress respectively, showing severe dryness, particularly in Offaka, Okollo, Uleppi and Anyiribu sub counties, leading to vegetation stress, reduced crop yields, and limited pasture and water availability.
• Recurrent flooding affects the northeastern parts of the district and areas along the River Nile corridor, including Ewanga, Rigbo, Rhino, Ogoko and Pawor, as well as low-lying sections of Rhino Refugee Settlement (notably Tika and Odobu 5)