Attachments
Climate Hazards in Uganda’s Refugee-Hosting Districts.
INTRODUCTION
Uganda hosts one of the largest refugee populations in Africa,1 many of whom live in climate-sensitive landscapes highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited adaptive capacity, and high exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and prolonged dry spells.2 Over recent decades, the country has experienced more frequent and intense climate hazards, undermining livelihoods, food security, health, and infrastructure.34 Uganda’s climate is characterized by a bimodal rainfall pattern; however, this pattern has become increasingly unpredictable, with delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall that disrupts agricultural cycles.5
during key agricultural seasons. According to the Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA), conducted by IMPACT Initiatives in 2024, prolonged dry spells and heavy rains are the hazard types most frequently reported across West Nile and Southwestern regions. With accelerating climate change, they will remain dominant hazards, alongside a growing risk of flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.6
Key Messages
• Koboko District currently receives ~1,418 mm of annual rainfall, projected to rise moderately to ~ 1,587 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, greater seasonal variability, prolonged dry spells and higher evapotranspiration are expected to intensify water stress, especially in Lobule Sub-county.
• Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4-3.0oC during the warmest month and driest quarters. This will likely increase the frequency of very hot days, heat stress and seasonal drought, leading to crop productivity, livestock health and water availability.
• Seasonal drought remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which capture rainfall deficits and vegetation stress respectively, showing severe dryness, particularly in Lobule, Ludara and Kuluba Sub counties, leading to vegetation stress, reduced crop yields, and limited pasture and water availability.
• Flooding affects areas with poor drainage infrastructure, including Lobule and central urban Koboko. Intense rainfall events following prolonged dry periods cause soil erosion, damage to crops and shelters, and disruption of roads and community infrastructure, compounding livelihood vulnerabilities.