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Climate Hazards in Uganda’s Refugee-Hosting Districts.
INTRODUCTION
Uganda hosts one of the largest refugee populations in Africa,1 many of whom live in climate-sensitive landscapes highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited adaptive capacity, and high exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and prolonged dry spells.2 Over recent decades, the country has experienced more frequent and intense climate hazards, undermining livelihoods, food security, health, and infrastructure.34 Uganda’s climate is characterized by a bimodal rainfall pattern; however, this pattern has become increasingly unpredictable, with delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall that disrupts agricultural cycles.5
during key agricultural seasons. According to the Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA), conducted by IMPACT Initiatives in 2024, prolonged dry spells and heavy rains are the hazard types most frequently reported across West Nile and Southwestern regions. With accelerating climate change, they will remain dominant hazards, alongside a growing risk of flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.6
Key Messages
- Isingiro District currently receives ~842 mm of annual rainfall, projected to rise moderately to ~ 964 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, persistent dry-season deficits and higher evapotranspiration will intensify water stress, especially in areas like Ruborogota, Kikagate and Kashumba.
- Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.2-2.4oC during the hottest and driest quarters, increasing the risk of droughts, heat stress and the frequency of very hot days across agricultural and settlement areas.
- Seasonal drought remains a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), which capture rainfall deficits and vegetation stress respectively, showing severe dryness across Masha, Kaberebere Town Council, Kabingo as well as Rushasha, Rugaaga, and Kashumba, leading to vegetation stress, reduced crop yields, and limited pasture and water availability.
- Flood hazard is highly localized. Recurrent flash floods mostly affect the western and northeastern parts, where low-lying terrain and poor drainage cause repeated damage to shelter, farmlands, and infrastructure.