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Climate Hazards in Uganda’s Refugee-Hosting Districts.
INTRODUCTION
Uganda hosts one of the largest refugee populations in Africa,1 many of whom live in climate-sensitive landscapes highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, limited adaptive capacity, and high exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and prolonged dry spells.2 Over recent decades, the country has experienced more frequent and intense climate hazards, undermining livelihoods, food security, health, and infrastructure.34 Uganda’s climate is characterized by a bimodal rainfall pattern; however, this pattern has become increasingly unpredictable, with delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall that disrupts agricultural cycles.5
during key agricultural seasons. According to the Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA), conducted by IMPACT Initiatives in 2024, prolonged dry spells and heavy rains are the hazard types most frequently reported across West Nile and Southwestern regions. With accelerating climate change, they will remain dominant hazards, alongside a growing risk of flash flooding in low-lying and poorly drained areas.6
Key Messages
• Adjumani District currently receives ~1,193 mm of annual rainfall, projected to rise moderately to ~ 1,356 mm by mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. However, the refugee-hosting areas that are in dryland zones with limited perennial water sources and fragile soils may experience higher deficits and evapotranspiration, intensifying water stress in areas such as Dzaipi, Ukusijoni Sub-counties.
• Temperatures are projected to increase by 2.5-3.0oC during the warmest months and driest quarters, increasing the risk of seasonal drought, heat stress and the frequency of very hot days across agricultural and settlement areas.
• Seasonal droughts remain a dominant hazard, with the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) showing severe dryness across Dzaipi, Pacara, Arinyapa, Ciforo Sub-counties and refugee settlements, such as Nyumanzi, Elema, Pagirinya, Ayilo, Alere and Maaji. This leads to vegetation stress, reduced crop yields, and limited pasture and water availability.
• Recurrent flooding affects certain sub-counties, including Pacara, Ciforo, Okusijoni and Dzaipi. This is due to their low elevation and proximity to seasonal river channels. In terms of settlement areas, Pagirinya, Oliji and Nyumanzi are particularly affected