FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Good prospects for 2016 first season crop production
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Maize prices decline, but still at high levels due to sustained regional demand
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High food vulnerability persists in Karamoja region
Favourable prospects for 2016 first season crop production
Land preparation of the 2016 “long-rains” first season crops is underway in bi-modal areas, while planting has already started in southern cropping areas with the arrival of first seasonal rains at the end of February. Rains are expected to be fully established in March in the rest of the country, with the exception of the uni-modal rainfall Karamoja region where the onset of the rains is likely to take place in April. Meteorological forecasts for the March-May period indicate an increased likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall, which is expected to have a favourable impact on 2016 first season crop production to be harvested by June in bi-modal rainfall areas.
Pasture conditions have seasonally deteriorated during the January to February dry season. However, current pasture and water resources are at above-average levels in most central and northern areas, including parts of Karamoja region, following the favourable abundant and extended 2015 second season rains. By contrast, pasture conditions are quickly deteriorating in southwestern parts of the cattle corridor due to well above-average temperatures.
Maize prices decline, but remain at high levels due to sustained regional demand
Wholesale prices of maize declined 10-25 percent in all monitored markets between November 2015 and January 2016 as crops from the 2015 “short-rains” second season harvest increased supplies.
Subsequently, prices started to seasonally increase in February in the capital, Kampala, and in Busia, a key cross-border hub with Kenya, while they continued to decline in Lira, located in a major producing area. However, maize prices in February were between 35 and 50 percent higher than 12 months earlier, due to a sustained export demand from neighbouring Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In Kampala, retail prices of matooke (cooking bananas), an important staple, declined between December 2015 and February 2016 by about 20 percent, while prices of cassava flour, stable in recent months, increased by 8 percent in February.
Satisfactory food security conditions, except in Karamoja region
The bumper 2015 season crop production, harvested in January/February, has improved food availability and access in most bi-modal areas and food stocks are expected to last until the next harvest in June. Labour opportunities related to ongoing land preparation and planting of 2016 first season crops are providing some income to poor households, with consequent improvement in local purchasing power.
In Karamoja region, however, most poor households are experiencing a long and harsh lean season that started in January, about two months earlier than usual, due to a below-average production harvested at the end of last year. Food stocks have already been depleted and the local population relies mainly on the markets to cover their food needs. This situation is expected to deteriorate further until July, when the first green crops will be available. Consumption of wild food is expected to increase in April with the onset of the rainy season.
The country hosts almost half a million refugees from South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi. Most of them have been granted some land from the Government of Uganda and host communities, so they are able to produce some food that integrates the assistance received from national and international institutions.