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(Excerpt)
3 . ENSO OUTLOOK FOR TUVALU IN SEPTEMBER:
The El Nino -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been raised to La Nina Alert.
This is due to both renewed cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean as well as climate models indicating La Nina.
Historically, when La Nina Alert criteria have been met, La Nina has subsequently developed around 70% of the time; this is approximately triple the normal likelihood.
Central tropical Pacific Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled over the past 6 weeks, while the sub surface has also seen recent cooling. Some atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness near the date line continue to show a La Nina like signal.