Climate Risk Country Profile - Turkmenistan

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• Average temperatures are projected to rise by 5.1°C in Turkmenistan by the 2090s, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5), with the pace of warming significantly exceeding the global average.

• There is a significant 3.3°C difference between the temperature rise projected by the 2090s under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5) and the rise expected under the lowest emissions pathway (RCP2.6), indicating the benefit of controlling global emissions.

• Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to warm slightly faster than average temperatures, a trend which may amplify impacts on human health, livelihoods, and ecosystems.

• The annual probability of experiencing a severe drought is projected to increase very significantly over the 21st century. Indeed, under higher emissions pathways the majority of Turkmenistan’s surface is projected to convert to ‘hyper-arid’ land cover.

• Increased temperatures and more rapid melting of glaciers elsewhere in the region may lead to severe water shortages along Turkmenistan’s most important river, the Amu Darya, by the 2040s and 2050s.

• Temperature rises, increases in drought frequency and water shortages that are projected to occur in Turkmenistan are expected to reduce the yields of the country’s major crops. Without adaptation significant falls in agricultural revenue, and food shortages, may result.

• Barriers to adaptation and elevated hazard exposure mean Turkmenistan’s lower income group communities are likely to be disproportionately impacted by climate changes. Further research and analysis are urgently required to better understand the poverty and inequality outlook under increased temperatures.

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