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Türkiye

Türkiye Market Bulletin: Issue No. 33, Quarter 1 2025 (January - March)

Attachments

HIGHLIGHTS

• USD/TRY Exchange Rate: In the first quarter of 2025, the exchange rate rose from TRY 34.97 in December 2024 to TRY 37.04 in March 2025. During the same period, the interest rate declined from 47.5 percent to 42.5 percent.

• Inflation Dynamics: Disinflation continued in Q1 2025, though at a slower pace. Annual inflation stood at 38.10 percent in March 2025. Following an initial decline early in the quarter, food inflation rose to 37.12 percent by March.

• Production and Economic Growth: Türkiye’s economy grew by 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, with full-year growth for 2024 recorded at 3.2 percent, primarily driven by the construction sector. However, industrial production has been declining since December 2024. • Domestic Producer Price Index (D-PPI): In line with disinflation trends, the Domestic Producer Price Index fell from 28.5 percent in December 2024 to 23.5 percent in March 2025.

• Unemployment Trends: The unemployment rate decreased from 8.5 percent in December 2024 to 7.9 percent in March 2025. Employment rates fluctuated throughout the first quarter, ending at 49.2 percent in March.

• Global Food Price Index and MEB Calculation: The global food price index fluctuated during Q1 2025 but returned to December 2024 levels (127 points) by March. The cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) rose to TRY 3,927 per person per month in March 2025 — a 56 percent increase compared to March 2024 (TRY 2,525). For individuals affected by the earthquake, the MEB cost reached TRY 4,304 per person per month, reflecting a 58 percent annual increase.