Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Winter cereal production in 2025 likely to be affected by prolonged dry weather conditions
- Cereal imports and exports estimated to decrease in 2024/25
- Protracted food inflation eases in 2025, but remains at high levels
- Humanitarian aid remains essential for Syrian refugees living in country
Winter cereal production in 2025 likely to be affected by prolonged dry weather conditions
Planting of the 2025 winter wheat and barley crops was completed at the end of 2024 and harvest is expected to start in June 2025. The newly implemented 2025–2027 government programme aims at increasing planted area, yields and grain quality through input subsidies and incentives for the use of local seeds. However, prolonged dry weather conditions in key producing regions, including Central Anatolia, are likely to have an adverse impact on yield prospects. Rainfall amounts between December 2024 and February 2025 were notably well below the average, reducing soil moisture levels. Farmers faced challenges also in regions where cereal crops are mostly irrigated, due to low water levels in dams. As dry spells are forecast to continue in the Black Sea and central regions, crop production is expected at below-average levels.
Planting activities of the 2025 maize crop have just started in April and the area planted, despite the limited availability of irrigation water, is expected to be above average, mainly driven by encouraging market prices.
Cereal imports and exports estimated to decrease in 2024/25
Cereal imports in the 2024/25 marketing year (June/May) are forecast at around 9.7 million tonnes, about 35 percent below the average, following government’s efforts to reduce imported cereals and promote domestic production. By mid-June 2024, the government implemented a wheat import ban which was partially lifted after mid-October 2024 and replaced with a quota scheme. The importers were initially required to locally purchase 85 percent of the wheat needed for flour production for re-export, while the remaining 15 percent could be sourced from international markets. This scheme was eased to a 75/25 localto-import ratio which was then fully lifted in mid-March 2025. It is worth to note that wheat imports between June 2024 and February 2025 declined by about 70 percent compared to the same period one year before. Cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year are estimated at 7.7 million tonnes, about 25 percent above the average, although 25 percent below last year’s volumes. The year-on-year decline reflects the record high domestic production harvested in 2023, which led to large carryover stocks. Furthermore, competitive international prices and government’s efforts in reducing imported wheat for processing and re-export, contributed to the slowdown in wheat and wheat flour exports.
Protracted food inflation eases in 2025, but remains at high levels
Food inflation fell to around 37 percent in March 2025, third lowest rate since November 2021, down from 70 percent the same month in the previous year. In February 2025, the price of wheat flour was 20 percent higher than one year before, largely driven by high costs of production and elevated prices of wheat in international markets. While international prices of rice decreased in February 2025 annually, the national average price of rice surged by 24 percent year-on-year, reflecting currency devaluation.
In April 2025, a severe frost affected over 30 provinces across the country, adversely impacting fruits and vegetable production, likely increasing their prices and posing a risk to the recent decline in food inflation.
Humanitarian aid remains essential for Syrian refugees living in country
The political transition in the Syrian Arab Republic in December 2024 prompted thousands of Syrian refugees living in the country to return home. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of March 2025, about 2.8 million registered Syrian refugees were residing in the country, down from about 3 million at the end of 2024. However, ongoing challenges, including protracted inflation, currency devaluation and rising food prices, continue to have an adverse impact on the purchasing power of most vulnerable households, increasing their reliance on humanitarian aid.