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Regional Situation Overview
Fourteen years into the Syria crisis, the Middle East region faces increasing economic, social, and political challenges, compounded by new large-scale emergencies with regional implications that heighten the needs of both refugees and their host communities. Overall, in 2025 more than 17.1 million people in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Türkiye are in need of some form of humanitarian and development assistance provided by the international community.
The Syria situation remains one of the largest displacement crises globally, with more than 12 million Syrians forcibly displaced, including more than five million Syrian refugees hosted in neighbouring countries, amid active conflict, natural disasters, deteriorating socio-economic and humanitarian conditions. Up to nine out of ten Syrian refugees grapple with challenges in meeting their basic needs while the support needed by host communities has reached unprecedented levels. In 2024, an estimated 16.7 million people inside Syria needed humanitarian assistance, including 7.2 million who were internally displaced.
Following the conflict escalation in Lebanon from 23 September until the 27 November ceasefire, over 900,000 individuals were displaced internally within Lebanon, and 562,000 fled to Syria, including over 400,000 Syrians who returned under adverse circumstances. Since the 27 November ceasefire the vast majority of displaced populations inside and outside Lebanon have returned to pre displacement areas, nonetheless, hundreds of thousands will continue to need assistance both in Lebanon and inside Syria.
Since December 2024 the unprecedented developments in Syria which led to the fall of the Assad government have dramatically impacted the lives of millions of Syrians, both within and outside the country. The new situation simultaneously presents potential opportunities for return while exacerbating risks of new displacement.
Undoubtedly, there has been an increase in Syrian refugees expressing a desire to return home. As of early March, over 300,000 Syrians have already made the journey back. The most recent RPIS survey indicate that 80% of refugees hope to return one day, with 27% expressing the intention to do so within the next year. Most refugees have expressed their intention to return in the spring season and after the end of the school year. In the best-case scenario, it is estimated that up to 1.5 million Syrians may return by the end of 2025.
However, despite this momentum, many challenges persist. Amid a still very precarious situation, some 90,000 Syrians are estimated to have fled to Lebanon since December. Inside Syria, many returning families find their homes damaged or destroyed, due to the conflict but also as a result of the devastating earthquakes of 2023, and face significant obstacles in rebuilding their lives. Health services in frontline areas have largely ceased, and education systems have faced major interruptions throughout the years of conflict.
Multiple conflicts in the region have exacerbated economic challenges, with the economies of refugee-hosting countries projected to contract further in 2025, potentially resulting in more people falling into poverty. The economies of the 3RP countries are marked by weak growth, high public debt, hyperinflation, declining foreign investment, and rampant unemployment. These challenges limit fiscal space for services, erode household purchasing power, and push more refugees and vulnerable populations into poverty. In Lebanon, even prior to the escalation of the conflict in September, the majority of Syrian refugees struggled to cover their basic needs, driving them to adopt harmful coping mechanisms (including removing their child from school, child labour and marriage). The conflict has further worsened their situation, with widespread destruction, particularly in the South, damaged shelters, and winter conditions exacerbating vulnerabilities. Many families face constraints in accessing basic services such as education, compounded by restrictive measures in some municipalities.
In Jordan, rising prices and reduced aid have worsened food security, pushing families to prioritise shelter and food over other essential services. In Türkiye, similar economic challenges, notably high inflation and currency fluctuations, compounded by recovery efforts from the 2023 earthquakes have strained overburdened services.
Meanwhile, Egypt has become the largest host of refugees arriving from Sudan since the conflict escalation in 2023, and the influx is severely straining national capacities and humanitarian response efforts.
Based on intentions surveys, the majority of refugees are still expected to remain in host countries by the end of 2025. Continued support to refugee-hosting countries remains critical to address life-saving humanitarian needs and maintain protection space. At the same time, it is crucial to follow the choices made by Syrian refugees, including to support those who want to return home.
In parallel, promoting the inclusion of Syrian refugees in national systems and enhancing the economic growth of host countries remains essential. For this, evidence-based advocacy efforts should focus on identifying entry points to remove legal barriers that restrict refugees’ access to the labour market and social protection schemes, create employment opportunities and support Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs). In order to generate employment and stimulate growth, Governments should engage the private sector, employ innovative financing mechanisms and financial tools like debt swaps or concessional financing.