Attachments
RISK ANALYSIS AND EARLY ACTION SELECTION
Prioritized hazard and its historical impact
The frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events poses a great threat to community and national level development in Timor-Leste as their impacts cause catastrophic loss and damage. Timor-Leste is prone to natural hazards such as floods, landslides, drought, cyclones and earthquakes. Of these hazards, the most common is flood, followed by drought and storms. With its shoreline of more than 700 km, nearly 65 percent of the population resides in low-lying areas. Most rural communities reside along the coastline, survive on basic incomes, and rely on farming and fishing. The result of the Household and Building Damages Assessment (HBDA) survey conducted in the five most affected municipalities following the 2021 Tropical Cyclone Seroja showed that nearly 75 per cent of the households reported being vulnerable to floods, followed by cyclones (32 per cent) and landslides (29 per cent).
As a result of climate change, dealing with floods has been a major issue in the coastal areas of the country, and it has been the in-land flooding bringing significant detrimental impact on the community, food production, property, infrastructure and water supplies. Historical loss of multi-disaster (landslides, flood and strong wind) data from 1992 – 2013 indicate that floods have been the most disastrous hazard event affecting communities, infrastructure and livelihoods.
From 2013-20236 catastrophic floods have been a major hazard affecting Timor-Leste. According to Timor-Leste Civil Protection Authority (CPA), over the last ten years (Baze de Dadus Dezastre Timor-Leste), floods have affected 29,696 households with 6,797 houses destroyed, causing 28 human casualties and 9 people missing across the country. The six most impacted municipalities over the last years are Dili, Covalima, Manatuto, Viqueque, Manufahi and Oecusse. The disastrous floods associated with landslides and strong winds caused by the 2021 Tropical Cyclone Seroja affected nearly 31,500 households or approximately 179,000 individuals and with reported loss of 44 lives throughout the country. The total damages caused by the catastrophic event were estimated at nearly USD 308 million.
This simplified EAP will prioritize flood risk areas of Manatuto, Viqueque, Manufahi, Covalima and Oecusse municipalities. These areas are chosen because during rainy season, these municipalities are frequently affected with either water from the flash flood or riverine floods, experience greater impacts, and their populations experience high socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Dili, despite experiencing frequent flooding, is purposefully not included in this simplified EAP. The rationale for this is the population in Dili has access to government and nongovernment support mechanisms that are not available in the selected municipalities, hence their prioritization. However, the Timor-Leste Red Cross, or Cruz Vermelha de Timor-Leste (CVTL) works closely with the Civil Protection Authority to deliver preparedness, early action and response activities in Dili outside of this simplified EAP, drawing on other sources of funding.