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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Above-average cereal output forecast in 2024
- Rice exports in 2025 forecast to decline
- Domestic prices of rice lower year-on-year in February 2025
Above-average cereal output forecast in 2024
Planting of the mostly irrigated 2024 second paddy crop, which accounts for about 20 percent of the annual output, finalized in early March 2025. The area planted is estimated to be above the five-year average, mainly supported by an adequate supply of irrigation water. Official reports indicate that, as of January 2025, water levels in major reservoirs located in the key paddy producing northern and central parts of the country were well above the previous five-year average. Harvesting of the mostly rainfed 2024 main paddy crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of the annual output, finalized last January and production is estimated to be above average. The good output is attributed to above-average area planted and yields, owing to favourable weather conditions and adequate availability of agricultural inputs. Localized crop losses occurred in the main producing northern and central areas due to flooding triggered by heavy rains between August and October 2024, and the passage of Typhoon Yagi in late September 2024.
Harvesting of the 2024 second maize crop finalized last February, while the main maize crop was harvested last September. Aggregate 2024 maize production is estimated at an above-average level of 5 million tonnes, reflecting area expansion driven by strong demand from the feed industry, while favourable weather conditions and the widespread use of high-yielding seed varieties supported the excellent yields.
Rice exports in 2025 forecast to decline
In calendar year 2025, exports of rice, the country’s major exportable cereal, are forecast at 7.9 million tonnes, down from the 9.9 million tonnes exported in 2024, owing to increased competition for markets.
Domestic prices of rice lower year-on-year in February 2025
Domestic prices of rice declined between July 2024 and February 2025, owing to ample market availability from the above-average main crop harvest obtained in 2024 and heightened competition for markets. As of February 2025, prices were about 35 percent lower year-on-year.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .