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Thailand is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, ranked as the 9th most affected country in the period of 2000–2019 by the Global Climate Risk Index Report (CRI) 2021 (Eckstein et al., 2021).
Climate change is likely to increase the incidence of flooding across the country, with the number of people affected by extreme river floods anticipated to grow to over 2 million by the 2035–2044 period (World Bank and ABD, 2021). Coastal flooding could affect a further 2.4 million people by 2070– 2100, with many densely populated urban centres situated along the coastline (ibid.). Thailand also frequently suffers from droughts resulting from shortage of rainfall, reduced flow in surface and sub-surface rivers, and poor land management practices (World Bank, 2023a). The north-eastern region of Thailand, which as of 2021 had one of the highest urban (10.1%) and rural (12.8%) poverty rates, is particularly vulnerable to drought (World Bank, 2022).
Moreover, Thailand’s high reliance on agriculture sectors – including forestry, livestock and fisheries – further exacerbates climate-induced vulnerabilities, employing around one third of Thailand’s workforce in 2018 (UNDP and FAO, 2019). Observed and projected impacts of climate change in Thailand pose a risk to key agricultural systems and the livelihoods of people dependent on those systems.
These issues, and the role they play in undermining national progress towards poverty eradication and food security, have been outlined by Thailand’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which include “safeguarding of food security” and “promoting sustainable agriculture” as core strategies to cope with climate change impacts (UNDP and FAO, 2023).
In addition, migrant workers from neighbouring countries also migrate to Thailand as a result of climate impacts in their country of origin. Research conducted by IOM Thailand in 2022 found that labour migration among workers from neighbouring countries employed in Thailand’s sugarcane sector, specifically in the border provinces of Tak and Sa Kaeo, was driven by environmental and climate impacts in their countries of origin. Often depending on agricultural livelihoods in their country, they were affected by increased droughts that disrupted the harvesting season, ultimately affecting their ability to earn an income and make a living. As adaptation strategy, they decided to seek employment in Thailand, including in the agricultural sector, which is also highly vulnerable to climate change (Vigil and Kim, 2023).