Attachments
JOINT SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS
Tajikistan, a landlocked country located in Central Asia, is bordered by Afghanistan to the south, China to the east,
Kyrgyzstan to the north, and Uzbekistan to the west. It is characteristic of mainly rugged mountains covering over 93% of its land. It features fertile valleys in the west, including the Fergana Valley, and is traversed by vital rivers like Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Vakhsh.
The population of Tajikistan is estimated to be more than 10 million people increasing steadily. Tajikistan is predominantly inhabited by Tajik people (80%), with Uzbeks (15.3%) and Russians (1%) also part of its ethnic diversity. The Pamiri community resides in the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. The median age in the country is around 24 years, indicating a significant proportion of the population being in younger age groups. Despite a declining fertility rate from approximately 3.0 children per woman, the country maintains an improved life expectancy of around 72 years. While Tajikistan exhibits a commendable literacy rate of 99.5% owing to free education from the Soviet era, challenges persist in rural education quality. Though the country has an urban population of only 27% and 73% is rural population, urbanization has been a notable trend in recent years. The capital city of Dushanbe is the largest urban center in the country, followed by Khujand, Qurghonteppa, and Kurgan-Tyube.
Tajikistan, a low-income country in Central Asia, grapples with economic woes. Despite possessing natural resources and hydropower potential, Tajikistan contends with infrastructure inadequacies, impeding access to markets and exacerbating vulnerabilities to natural hazards. Agriculture remains pivotal, contributing 22.6% to GDP and employing 45.7% of the population. Owing to economic factors, including limited job opportunities and low wages, there has been significant outward migration in recent years and more than one million Tajiks migrate to Russia every year. Reduced remittances, declining tourism, currency depreciation, and increased food prices due to global crises like the Ukrainian conflict and COVID-19 have compounded the country’s challenges.
Remittances, constituting over 30% of the GDP, face potential declines amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict, impacting food prices and the country’s economy. Rising global commodity prices further strain Tajikistan’s food security, with real unemployment figures exceeding official rates.
Border issues have led to recurring tensions and armed clashes, such as recent clashes at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border.
Tajikistan also faces security challenges along its border with Afghanistan, evidenced by violent events in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) between November 2021 and June 2022. This situation saw limited access and internet cuts in the region, though the situation has since stabilized.
The country faces numerous health challenges, including relatively high maternal and child mortality rates, a growing TB epidemic and, most concerningly, the increase of drug-resistant TB, periodic outbreaks of infectious diseases, high prevalence of non-communicable diseases, and poor access to adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene services. The situation is further exacerbated in times of disasters, which are increasing in their intensity and frequency.
Humanitarian needs in the country continue to be driven by rising food prices, socio-economic risks from the crisis in Ukraine, impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, disease outbreaks, and recurrent natural hazards such as mudflows, floods, landslides, earthquakes, avalanches, heat, and cold waves. Localized conflicts over land and water resources in the fertile Ferghana Valley (located on the territories of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) also play a part.