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Joint situational analysis
Tajikistan has a population of almost ten million, a quarter of which lives in urban areas. Most people in Tajikistan belong to the Persian-speaking Tajik group (79.9%), but there are populations of Uzbeks (15.3%) and Russians (1%), whose numbers are falling due to emigration. The Pamiris of Badakhshan (a region in south-eastern Tajikistan and north-eastern Afghanistan) are considered as part of the Tajiks. The official language is Tajik, but Russian is also frequently used.
Tajikistan is the least developed country in the Central Asia region, and over a quarter of the population live below the national poverty line. 75% of the population live in rural areas and derive their livelihoods from the agricultural sector. Agriculture accounts for approximately 30% of the country’s GDP, but the agricultural base is characterized by limited arable land. In the limited areas where cultivation is practical, there is a heavy dependency on irrigation, though the irrigation infrastructure in most areas is in disrepair and there is a risk of future water shortages.
Although the official unemployment rate is 7.5% (2020), the real numbers may be much higher. The Russian Federation is still the top labour market for Tajik migrants who send back crucial remittances. However, with the Ukraine crisis, remittances from Russia to Tajikistan have started to fall significantly. By World Bank estimates, overall remittances equalled almost 27% of GDP in 2020, but the volume of money sent home from Russia has been falling and is expected to fall by 22 % by in 2022.
More violent fluctuations of prices in the global market for most major food commodities, fuel and lubricants, as well as turbulence around key logistics routes, have already caused substantial negative impacts on the food security situation in Tajikistan.