Attachments
GENERAL TRENDS
NATURAL HAZARDS
Heavy snowfall, freezing conditions, avalanches, mudflows and floods are the major natural hazard events which can be expected in March 2012. Floods can be triggered by rain on snow and mudflows triggered by locally heavy precipitation or rapid snow melt. Local monitoring is needed for these hazards.
WEATHER
Above average precipitation is forecasted for March for most of Tajikistan. Average temperatures will be within the long term averages. Weather through the middle of March is expected to be wet and cold.
ENERGY SECURITY
Cold weather may reduce the capacity of the Nurek Cascade to produce electricity until warmer weather triggers the seasonal snow melt. Close monitoring of weather conditions and water volumes on the upper Vakhst River is critical to warning of possible reductions in electrical production.
FOOD SECURITY
Wheat flour prices in Khujand have dropped by one third, indicating lower cost Kazakh wheat has begun to lower prices in Tajikistan. This will have a positive impact of food security. Increased remittances should also improve food security at the national level.
HEALTH
The Ministry of Health in Tajikistan (MoH) Sanitary Epidemiological Service (SES) reported that situation on influenza is less severe than in 2011. A warning is provided that cases of Hepatitis A may begin in late September.
ECONOMY
January GDP was 1,681 million Tajik Somoni (354 million USD), 6.1% higher than in January 2011. In January 2012, the trade balance was a negative 186.3 million USD. January exports equaled 106.2 million USD, 22.5% less than in the same period of 2011. Imports equaled 292.5 million USD, 19.9% more than January 2011. Remittances in February 2012 were 26% higher than in February 2011.