Tajikistan

Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan: Monthly Report - April 2015

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Situation Report
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GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

In April 2015, according to long-term observations, there is very a high risk of an emergency caused by mudflows and landslides, heavy rains, and floods. There remains danger of snowfalls and frosts, as well of avalanches.

WEATHER

The temperature in April 2015 will be within the norm in Sughd Province and at lower elevations of DRD and GBAO, in Khatlon Province 10C above the climatic norm, and 1-1.50C below the climatic norm at higher elevations of DRD. Monthly precipitation is expected to be within normal limits in Khatlon and Sughd Provinces, DRD, and Western districts of GBAO, and above the norm in the Eastern districts of GBAO.

ENERGY SECURITY

Electricity generation in March 2015 was 164.2 million kW/h more compared to the same period of the previous year. This is due to the commissioning of the first unit of the "Dushanbe-2" thermal power and the second unit of “Sangtuda-2” HPP in the past year.

FOOD SECURITY

In April, the wheat price stability in Kazakhstan contributes to stability of flour prices in Tajikistan. Regional food availability will remain good due to the stock availability of local wheat harvest. In order to prevent locust invasion the Republican Locust Control Headquarters was created.

HEALTH

The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, decreases with the beginning of spring.

MIGRATION

In March, the number of labor migrants was 80,630 people, which is 12.8% less compared to March 2014. The reduction in labor migration is due to the new regulations for entrance into the Russian Federation on International Passports from January 1, 2015, and amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities of labor migrants from foreign countries.

ECONOMY

The GDP totaled 4,782.3 million TJS (889.6 million USD) for January-February 2015. Industrial production increased by 13.7 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Consumer price inflation was 0.7 percent compared to December 2014. The total balance of bank credits was 10.1 billion TJS (1,860.5 million USD) for March 2015. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 1,754.8 million TJS (326.5 million USD). In January-February 2015 foreign trade turnover was equal to 615.4 million USD, 15.8 percent less than in the same period in 2014. Goods exports totaled 149.4 million USD, and imports totaled 466 million USD.