Attachments
Introduction
Three Central Asian states — Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — border the northern regions of Afghanistan, where ethnic groups of Tajiks, Turkmens and Uzbeks live. These countries have developed cultural, historical and trade links with each other and are interested in stable cross-border and international relations.
The largest river of Central Asia, the Amu Darya, rises in the high mountains of Pamir and Hindu Kush in Tajikistan (Pamir River) and Afghanistan (Wakhan River) and flows for over 1 000 km along the Afghan border with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The shared water and natural resources of the Amu Darya basin, the river’s function as a border, and joint transport and energy projects are among key factors in the development of relations.
Central Asian countries reacted differently to the change in power structure and balance in Afghanistan following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in August 2021. Initially, many ties were severed and co-operation suspended. Later, representatives of the new de facto authorities of the “Islamic Emirate” of Afghanistan visited Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan visited Kabul. Tajikistan refused to negotiate and did not recognize the new authorities in Afghanistan, while internationally the Taliban-led government remains unrecognized.
In the 1.5 years since the Taliban take-over, Central Asia countries have experienced no spill-over of insecurity or flow of refugees, but the 2022–2023 humanitarian situation in Afghanistan remains dire and armed extremist groups pose risks to security, while extreme weather and the country’s isolation increases suffering.
Afghanistan shares borders with six countries. Like the Central Asian states, Afghanistan’s other neighbours have links and influences, notably Pakistan, which shares the 2 640 km long border, promotes trade and supports Pashtun-speaking groups. Iran shares a 920 km border with Afghanistan, and is interested in security and co-ordinated management of the Helmand River water resources, support of Farsi-speaking and Shia groups and energy links. China has the shortest border with Afghanistan (75 km in the Wakhan Valley), but is actively developing its ties and presence, including industrial projects.
In July 2022, an international conference on Afghanistan was held in Tashkent to discuss options, plans and aid projects. In November 2022, the 10th “Herat Security Dialogue” was held in Dushanbe to discuss how to bring about an inclusive Afghan government. Central Asian countries continue to provide Afghanistan with electricity, food and humanitarian aid.
In addition to security risks emanating from Afghanistan, the southern regions of Central Asia bordering Afghanistan are vulnerable to natural disasters and the impacts of the changing climate such as glacial melt, mudslides, floods, dust storms, droughts and locust infestations, many of which originate in Afghanistan.
On top of the Afghan crisis, in 2022, Central Asia was indirectly affected by the conflict in Ukraine through rising food and rental prices, inflation, and job insecurity for migrant workers. Households in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan spend about half of their total income on food (according to data from the Agency on Statistics of Uzbekistan and the Central Bank of Uzbekistan), and their poorer people are particularly vulnerable to price hikes, the energy crisis and the impacts of climate change disasters.
Water is Central Asia’s most valuable natural resource, since most of the population and economy of the southern regions depend on irrigation. The key problem is the significant loss of water due to leaks in canals and evaporation. After irrigating fields, the drainage run-off water either flows into deserts or back into rivers, leading to increased mineralization and pollution of fresh water.
Water losses related to irrigation remain high, many water canals and pipelines are in poor condition, while cold winters (including the 2022–2023 winter) demonstrate the increasing vulnerability of energy systems as populations and their demands grow.
In 2009–2010, under the Environment and Security (ENVSEC) Initiative, the OSCE participated in an ENVSEC assessment of the Amu Darya River, looking at the region’s water challenges in the context of climate change, energy and food linkages.
In 2014–2016, jointly with international partners and Central Asian countries, the OSCE conducted an assessment of the links between climate change and security. The Tajik-Afghan and TurkmenAfghan border areas — the southern regions of Central Asia — were flagged among areas of concern. Here, according to expert judgements and climate change projections, already high temperatures are expected to continue rising, precipitation may decrease and extreme weather events such as droughts, dust storms and pest outbreaks may lead to food insecurity. Options to reduce climate stress in this region are limited due to poor public awareness, lack of alternative income sources and technologies, and limited access to water and energy in remote areas.
Mountain areas are the most vulnerable to the impacts of natural disasters. This factor, combined with the rapid melting of snow and glaciers due to climate warming, increases the risk of mudslides and avalanches and the cost of repairing and maintaining socially and strategically important infrastructure: roads, power lines, water supply canals and pipelines.
These factors are compounded by the risks arising from the instability in Afghanistan and the difficulty of sharing water, weather and climate data and disaster warnings in the Amu Darya River basin.
Other factors are ecologically and economically valuable resources, as well as shared water resources, they include natural forests and pastures, migratory and endangered species of birds, fish and animals, medicinal plants and crop wild relatives. There are several nature reserves, national parks and state forestry areas near the borders to protect rare species of flora, fauna and ecosystems, and the Amu Darya River itself includes important sections of floodplain forests (tugai) and habitats for unique fish. Rational use of nature and restoration of degraded forests and pastures can reduce poverty, create additional sources of income for the population and increase resilience to the impacts of climate change. This paper provides specific recommendations.