Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Favourable conditions of 2019 wheat crops
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Weather-reduced yields of cereals in 2018
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Above-average wheat imports forecast in 2018/19
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Prices of wheat flour increased in February
Favourable conditions of 2019 wheat crops
Conditions of the 2019 winter wheat crops, to be harvested between July and August, are reported to be favourable. Planting was completed by mid-November 2018 and, since then, precipitations were adequate over the main crop producing areas in the southwestern provinces of the country, contributing to the filling of water reserves to be used during the summer period (June-August). However, due to above average humidity levels, there is a possibility that fungal diseases, such as rust and root rot will develop, negatively affecting crop conditions.
Spring crops, to be harvested in August-September 2019, will be planted between April and June.
Weather-reduced yields of cereals in 2018
Harvesting of the 2018 cereal crops finalized by the end of September last year and aggregate production is estimated at about 1.1 million tonnes, 20 percent below the previous year’s average level and a seven-year low. The decrease is mainly due to a well below-average wheat output, set at about 700 000 tonnes. Similarly, maize output is estimated at 26 percent below the five-year average, at 147 000 tonnes. The reduced outputs are mainly due to unfavourable weather conditions between February and May 2018, which had a negative impact on yields.
Above-average wheat imports forecast in 2018/19
In the 2018/19 marketing year (July/June), import requirements of cereals, mainly wheat, are forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, 13 percent above the five-year average level, reflecting reduced domestic production. Purchases of wheat grain are expected at about 20 percent above the average volume, while, due to increased local milling capacities over the last years, imports of wheat flour are forecast to decline. Wheat flour imports decreased by almost 90 percent in the last ten years.
Prices of wheat flour increased in February
Retail prices of wheat flour rose sharply from August 2018 onwards and, in February 2019, they were on average 20 percent higher than a year before. The increase mainly reflects the upward trend of wheat export prices from Kazakhstan, the main wheat grain and wheat flour supplier to the country, a reduced domestic harvest in 2018 and the weakening of the local currency.
Prices of potatoes, another staple food in the country, after a slight increase in January 2019 decreased in February to levels well below those in the previous year.