Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Cereal output estimated at above‑average level in 2024
- Cereal imports in 2024/25 forecast at near‑average level
- Prices of wheat flour decreased year‑on‑year in February 2025
Cereal output estimated at above‑average level in 2024
Planting of the 2025 winter cereal crops (mainly wheat), to be harvested in June 2025, took place between the end of September and mid‑November 2024. In the main wheat‑producing Khatlon Region, precipitation amounts were near the average level from October to early November and above‑average afterward. Currently, wheat crops are in dormancy and snow cover is near the average level, providing favourable conditions for the winter crop.
Harvesting of the 2024 winter cereal crops was completed in August 2024 (considering agro‑climatic zones) , while harvesting of maize and other spring crops finalized between September and November 2024. The 2024 aggregate cereal output is estimated at 1.8 million tonnes, including 880 700 tonnes of wheat, 448 801 tonnes of maize and 166 380 tonnes of barley. The total production is above the five‑year average levels, following favourable weather conditions during the season and near-average plantings.
Cereal imports in 2024/25 forecast at near‑average level
Imports account for more than half of the domestic consumption needs of cereals and wheat represents more than 90 percent of cereal imports. Given the favourable 2024 harvest, import requirements of wheat in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a near‑average level of 1.2 million tonnes. During the last ten years, due to improved local milling capacities, imports of wheat grain have been increasing, while purchases of wheat flour have decreased by almost 90 percent.
Prices of wheat flour decreased year‑on‑year in February 2025
Retail prices of first grade wheat flour increased between July and October 2024, due to seasonal trends, higher global export prices, stronger consumer demand and rising production and transport costs. However, wheat prices remained stable until February 2025, resulting 3 percent below the previous year’s level. According to estimates made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Gross domestic production (GDP) growth decreased from 6.8 percent in 2024 to 4.5 percent in 2025 and the inflation rate increased from 4.5 percent in 2024 to 6.9 percent in 2025.