Climate Risk Country Profile - Tajikistan

KEY MESSAGES

• Tajikistan is projected to experience temperature rises significantly above the global average. Under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5), warming could reach 5.5°C by the 2090s, compared with 1986–2005 baseline.

• Warming trends are projected to be even stronger for maximum and minimum temperatures, which could adversely impact on human lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems.

• There is a high likelihood that temperatures in Tajikistan will more regularly surpass 40°C, particularly in lowland regions. This can have result in increased consequences to human health • Increased temperatures, paired with increased likelihoods for aridity and drought incidence can cause the expansion of arid land for some areas, which could also affect agricultural yields.

• The potential for decrease of the country’s mountain glaciers is likely to reduce the regularity of waterflows, and may result in the drying of some watersheds. Simultaneous flooding issues and associated hazards such as landslides and mudslides are expected to intensify, impacting lives and livelihoods.

• Tajikistan has a strong reliance on hydroelectric power production and potential drying may impact regularity of flows, which may increase variability of hydropower generation.

• Without needed adaptation efforts and disaster risk reduction preparedness and planning, the effects of climate change, and particularly heat and drought, may result in severe loss and damage in Tajikistan.