Attachments
Context & Rationale
Syria remains one of the world’s most complex humanitarian crises, significantly affecting the production and supply of its staple food, bread. The combined and ongoing effects of the crisis have impacted wheat production, milling, and bread availability, posing a serious threat to food security and the overall well-being of the population. In addition to reduced wheat production, vital food security infrastructure—including bakeries, mills, and silos—has suffered extensive damage since the conflict began, and wheat-to-bread facilities have increasingly been deliberately targeted by airstrikes in Northeast Syria (NES) since October 2023. Furthermore, supply chain disruptions, high levels of inflation and rising costs, and shortages have all presented acute challenges for wheat-to-bread market actors in securing adequate quantities of key inputs. Due to these combined factors, humanitarian actors have been supporting the wheat-to-bread supply chain through the rehabilitation of infrastructure and provision of key inputs to ensure bread is available in communities throughout NES.
This Situation Overview builds on previous studies carried out by iMMAP and was co-designed with the NES Food Security and Livelihoods Working Group. It primarily aims to assess the number, operational status, and production levels of key wheat-to-bread facilities (i.e. bakeries, mills, and silos), as well as identify key challenges they are facing. The findings of this report and the corresponding datasets are intended to inform prioritization and planning decision-making by humanitarian actors active in bread and bakery support programming in Northeast Syria.
Methodology Overview
This assessment utilized Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) at the sub-district level as the primary data collection method. Enumerators based in NES conducted interviews with one KI for each facility, either in person or remotely (via phone). KIs were selected based on their specific knowledge of the facilities. Data was collected between October 20 and November 3, 2024, using three distinct tools tailored for bakeries, mills, and silos. Unless otherwise stated, all indicators refer to the situation prior to the data collection period.
Key Messages
• Operational challenges in bread production: Most assessed bakeries, silos, and mills are operational but require urgent machinery upgrades and additional input support to improve efficiency, extend working hours, and meet supply demands effectively. Additionally, many KIs receiving support from local authorities noted that these supplies such as flour, wheat, and fuel are insufficient and of poor quality, further restricting production. These challenges have been compounded by a series of conflict escalations in NES since October 2023 that have seen wheat to bread facilities deliberately targeted by airstrikes.
• Declining wheat yields: 82% of wheat farmers in NES reported lower yields in 2023-2024, mainly due to financial and market barriers in accessing key inputs. This decline risks reducing bread availability, increasing prices, and worsening food insecurity in NES over the next year, as many wheat farmers may be compelled to scale back cultivation or halt wheat production entirely.
• Bread production output in relation to population needs: At the regional level, the combined output of assessed bakeries is sufficient to meet overall population needs. However, a significant production gap was recorded in Aleppo and Deir-ez-Zor governorates.
Furthermore, 69% of KIs reported that bakery production is insufficient to meet bread demand, highlighting uneven distribution and fragile or disrupted supply chains.