Attachments
Context & Rationale
As of October 2024, Northeast Syria (NES) continued to face significant challenges stemming from prolonged conflict and economic crisis. The region remained plagued by recurrent flare-ups of armed conflict and destruction of civilian infrastructure,1 including water systems and agricultural land, continuing to hamper the sustainable economic recovery of communities.2 In 2024, the further depreciation of the Syrian Pound (SYP) against the US Dollar (USD) continued to fuel inflation, sharply increasing the cost of essential goods and pushing more households into poverty. Between October 2023 and October 2024, the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB) in SYP rose by 26%,3 while according to REACH’s 2024 Multi-Sectoral Needs Assessment (MSNA), 44% of households in NES faced food security and livelihoods (FSL) needs.
The agricultural sector, a historically vital source of livelihoods in NES, has been severely impacted by compounded challenges, undermining both productivity and long-term economic and environmental sustainability. Farmers face restricted access to arable land due to ongoing conflict and displacement, alongside reduced water availability.4 Rising production costs have further strained the sector, making farming increasingly unaffordable. High operational costs remain a significant barrier to agricultural livelihoods,5 contributing to the documented decline in agricultural production and exacerbating regional food insecurity.6 Climatic variability and environmental factors, such as irregular rainfall, rising temperatures, and prolonged droughts, have also substantially hindered productivity.
This assessment evaluated the 2023-2024 wheat and barley agricultural season in NES, analyzing production trends, climate-related challenges, and input constraints. It also examined farmers’ coping strategies and financial conditions, aiming to support FSL partners in future planning and advocacy to strengthen agricultural livelihoods and food systems in the region.
Findings should be interpreted with caution, as they reflect the situation up until October 2024. Given the rapidly changing political, economic, and security context at the time of publishing of this report’s publication,9 the validity and relevance of the results may be limited. Nonetheless, these insights remain useful for informing policy and humanitarian interventions, but their applicability must consider the evolving circumstances in NES.
Methodology Overview
The assessment employed a mixed-methods approach. A total of 986 quantitative individual interviews (IIs) were conducted with wheat and barley farmers across 32 sub-districts in NES between September 22 and 30, 2024. In addition, 46 structured key informant (KI) interviews with agricultural authorities and experts were carried out between October 30 and 31, 2024. The study also incorporated remote sensing data analysis and a desk review of secondary sources to further inform the findings.
A purposive sampling method was employed, targeting farmers across various sub-districts, with an initial quota of 30 surveys per sub-district. This approach allowed for flexibility in data collection while ensuring comprehensive coverage of agricultural challenges. The findings were then aggregated at the sub-district and governorate levels. For more detailed information on the methodology, please consult the Assessment methodology section.
Due to this purposive sampling approach, findings from this assessment should be interpreted as indicative only.