Attachments
Despite the promises of recent diplomatic engagements and the lifting of US and EU sanctions, Syria’s security situation remains fractious and fragile. The current status quo is defined by multiple threats—including resistance to interim authorities’ control in Suwayda and eastern Daraa, simmering tensions with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and ongoing Israeli incursions and attacks in the south-west in violation of Syrian sovereignty. However, the possibility of a resurgent ISIS is arguably the most concerning of all these at present. US attempts to encourage Syria into signing the Abraham Accords may create backlash for interim President Ahmad al-Shara’a from within the Salafi-jihadi milieu in Syria and strengthen ISIS in the process. Al-Shara’a is treading delicately, and recent arrests of Palestinian fighters from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other hardline groups may be an attempt to assuage US and Israeli concerns about potential anti-Israeli actors on Syrian soil. Seemingly cognizant of the factionalized, fragile military and security landscape in Syria at present, al-Shara’a’s administration is trying to institutionally consolidate its control of General Security through the Interior Ministry—increasingly one of the main official fulcrums of power consolidation in Syria.
ISIS Reorganization
The latest issue of ISIS’ propaganda arm, Al-Naba, recently attacked interim President Ahmad al-Shara’a for his recent meetings with US President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. The extremist group regarded al-Shara’a as an “apostate” and called on foreign fighters in HTS’ ranks to defect to ISIS. This kind of continued propagandizing against the new authorities in Damascus potentially points to ISIS’ strategic reorganization of its networks and priorities in Syria—and could presage more attacks in the future. Looking forward, al-Shara’a will also have to balance increasing obligations to the international community while managing his base, with former fighters from extremist groups such as Jund al-Aqsa and Hurras al-Deen potentially alienated by any steps seen to normalize with Israel or bring the new Syria into closer alignment with the United States
ISIS has consistently attacked SDF targets in Syria’s north-east, but only earlier this month claimed their first attack on interim authorities. On 5th May, cells killed two General Security fighters at a checkpoint in eastern Deir Ezzor, possibly in response to an increase in antiISIS operations by interim authorities. Since then, ETANA has recorded at least two separate attacks in and around Palmyra city, believed to be linked to ISIS, which saw unknown militants attack security forces with small arms, RPGs and mortars in late May. In the same week, an unidentified group attacked a house and two vehicles near the courthouse on the eastern outskirts of Palmyra before fleeing the area, the second attack of its kind in the same district in as many days. Additional security checkpoints have been set up in response.