Attachments
An outbreak of armed clashes and anti-Druze sectarian violence in Suwayda province and the Rural Damascus towns of Jaramana and Sahnaya last week appears to have reached a tense impasse. For the time being, interim authorities have accepted de-escalation and stalemate, but continue to see the relative autonomy of Druze regions as unacceptable. Meanwhile, sporadic light clashes between Druze and Bedouin groups have continued to erupt around the western countryside of Suwayda. Some of these Bedouin groups are encouraged and covertly supported by interim authorities in Damascus. Interim authorities have favored this playbook of exploiting local divisions and supporting local proxy actors to strong-arm groups into security arrangements with the interim Ministry of Defense, while ignoring underlying grievances around power-sharing, genuine institution-building and an inclusive political process. As such, interim authorities will continue to capitalize on any instability to undermine the independence of Druze leaders and factions moving forward.
Facing increased pressure from interim authorities following the Druze clashes and drawdown of the US-led International Coalition in the north-east, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) find themselves in a precarious position, effectively forced to renew engagement in negotiations to hand over the Tishreen Dam, integrate its units into the Syrian army and transfer control of all civilian institutions in the north-east over to authorities in Damascus. Even as Damascus forces the capitulation of local armed factions in the country through security tactics, its failure to redress the core political demands of these groups and their communities is entrenching fear, mistrust and division as the foundation of a post-Assad Syria.