Attachments
While caretaker President Ahmad al-Shara’a’s recent meetings with Qatari, Saudi and Turkish officials arguably represent the most significant diplomatic advances for Syria’s new, post-Assad authorities, there are persistent question-marks around the current trajectory being taken in Syria. HTS-led caretaker authorities appear to be trying to accrue legitimacy from outside actors, instead of building domestic legitimacy from inside the country. Even after al-Shara’a’s appointment as caretaker president last week, there is still no plan forward for the transitional phase beyond a broad list of milestones to be achieved over the coming years. The on-the-ground reality in Syria remains the same: there is still no process for integrating armed factions into the Ministry of Defense, nor any clarity around the National Dialogue Conference, which could still go ahead in the coming weeks.
Caretaker Governance
Since being newly anointed as caretaker president last week, Ahmad al-Shara’a (previously known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani) conducted several high-level meetings with senior officials and heads of state from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. The meetings reflect some regional states’ desire for stability in Syria and an initial willingness to engage with al-Shara’a to achieve that—even if they may have underlying concerns and competing long-term objectives in Syria. At the same time, there have been some muted criticisms in the wake of last week’s announcements by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that effectively tightened the group’s grip on power. At a local level, protesters in Suwayda also criticized the optics of the HTS-led reforms, saying they were based on a “military decision” rather than genuine transitional changes.
Perhaps most significantly, the Self Administration and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) criticized al-Shara’a’s announcements in a statement, arguing that systemic political changes should have come on the heels of a comprehensive national conference attended by a representative cross-section of Syrian society. The SDF were absent from the conference; negotiations between caretaker authorities and the SDF broke down in the days leading up to the event.
The caretaker Ministry of Defense appointed Colonel Muhammad Abdelrahman al-Sheikh Muhammad as a commander in the ministry’s Armaments Department. A former army major before his defection after 2011, Muhammad’s appointment may reflect the government’s aim to consolidate this department ahead of the hoped-for disarmament of former opposition factions and their incorporation under the new Ministry of Defense.
Security Dynamics
Three months after the fall of the Assad regime, Syria’s caretaker authorities continue to struggle with rising revenge violence and armed group activity—while, in some instances, HTS-led security forces have been implicated in violations themselves. In the first attack against HTS-led security forces in rural Latakia since the fall of the regime, one member of General Security was killed and two others injured in an ambush near the village of Al-Mukhtariyeh, located close to the M4 highway in Latakia province. The attack was later claimed by a group calling itself the “Popular Resistance.” Meanwhile, unknown armed groups perpetrated at least two cases of sectarianized violence against Alawi and Shia communities over the past week. An armed group stormed the Alawi village of Azreh, north-west of Hama city, and executed nine people. In another incident, an armed group killed four people in the Shia-majority village of Tal Dahab, in northern Homs but located just next to the provincial border with Hama province. There have been notable incidents of public backlash against these acts.
Muhammad Loay Talal Tayara, allegedly a former member of the regime’s National Defense Forces militia, died under torture hours after being arrested by HTS-led security forces in Homs city. The news prompted public backlash in Homs; in response, General Security arrested the alleged perpetrators the following day. An unnamed General Security official in Homs was quoted in state-run news agency SANA as saying that Tayara was arrested for “not settling his legal status and for carrying undeclared weapons,” adding that “some security personnel assigned with transported him” subsequently “carried out violations” that led to this death. The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) has documented two other recent deaths in General Security custody.
Additionally, former Interior Minister Muhammad Ibrahim al-Sha’ar voluntarily surrendered to HTS-led security forces earlier this week. In Tartous, General Security arrested renowned shabih and local criminal Talal Atif. State-run news agency SANA also announced the arrest of Atif Najib, a cousin of Bashar al-Assad who headed Daraa’s Political Security Branch at the time of the outbreak of the first anti-Assad protests in the city in March 2011.
Israeli Attacks in Quneitra
Israeli forces continue to make illegal incursions in southern Syria, where residents report fears for their security and livelihoods. Gunmen opened fire on an Israeli patrol near the northern Quneitra town of Tarnajah without causing any casualties on the Israeli side. The attack was carried out by Alaa al-Bakr, who is known for working with Hezbollah in the south-west in the past. Two of his brothers were subsequently arrested by Israeli forces; it is not known if al-Bakr was killed in the subsequent firefight or managed to escape to safety.
The same week, Israeli forces withdrew from the Quneitra Governorate building in Al-Ba’ath City towards Al-Hamidiyeh. Withdrawing Israeli forces reportedly burned documents from the building and an adjacent courthouse. The Israeli army also stormed the town of Al-Hurriyeh in northern Quneitra and arrested a local resident named Abdu Nour Taha, releasing him hours later after an interrogation at the Israeli point near Jubata al-Khashab.
Türkiye/SNA & SDF Hostilities in Aleppo & North-East Syria
The Autonomous Administration issued a decision initiating a state of general mobilization for all affiliated armed groups as well as organizations and institutions in the north-east, putting them at the disposal of the SDF. The announcement is likely a response to international media reports stating that US President Donald Trump has expressed interest in withdrawing US troops from Syria.
Despite a brief period of calm following the “victory conference” in Damascus last week, clashes have continued between Türkiye and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the SDF. The SNA shelled SDF positions near Tal al-Dakl, and Al-Thawra in Raqqa province’s western rural Tal Abyad. Even so, clashes have not precipitated any changes to local frontlines. Turkish airstrikes, meanwhile, continued to target SDF positions across eastern Aleppo including Tal al-Shuyoukh and around the Tishreen Dam, Habel al-Shuyoukh as well as the village of Ashma near Kobane/Ain al-Arab.
In a major incident, a car bomb exploded in a busy central area of Manbij city, killing at least 20 people. Most of those killed were women, with the attack targeting agricultural workers on their way to work. The unclaimed attack is said to be the worst of its kind since the fall of the regime late last year, and prompted a statement from the caretaker presidency describing the incident as a “terror attack” that “will not pass without the most severe punishment against its perpetrators.” Repeated car bombings—including another in Manbij last weekend that killed four civilians—are expected to further sour talks between caretaker authorities and the SDF, who many blame for the attacks.
Political & Humanitarian Developments
ETANA estimates that up to 70% of Rukban camp’s pre-2025 population have now left the desert settlement along the Syrian-Jordanian border, with roughly five families leaving per day. The ability of families to return to their homes—which are mostly located in Homs province—still depends on the cost of northward transportation; talks are ongoing between camp representatives and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC), with SARC pledging to assist returnees with transport costs although this has not materialized until now.