Context
In March 2024, the Syrian crisis entered its 13th year, marking another grim milestone for Syrians throughout the region. The country remains one of the world’s most complex humanitarian emergencies, where 7.2 million people are internally displaced, and 90 per cent of the population is now estimated to be living below the poverty line. Syria’s estimated population reached 23 million in 2023, and its human development index (HDI) declined from 0.644 in 2010 to 0.567 in 2020, ranking it 151 out of 189 countries.
In 2024, 16.7 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, the largest number since the beginning of the crisis in 2011. More than 2.4 million children are out of school, with 46 per cent being girls and 54 per cent boys and over a million more at risk of dropping out. The longer these children stay out of school, the less likely it is that they will return. Overall, 13.56 million people need water, sanitation and hygiene assistance in Syria. The food security situation in the country continues to deteriorate, with an estimated 15.4 million people in need of food or livelihood support and agricultural assistance, or assistance from national safety nets.
Macroeconomic conditions continued to deteriorate in the first half of 2024 and appear to be worsening. The combined effects of currency depreciation, soaring prices, reduced fiscal revenue, increasing domestic debt and widespread losses in livelihoods have plunged additional segments of the population into humanitarian need, most notably in areas historically less affected by hostilities and displacement.
The Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB), a measure to count the cost of living, for a household of five members, has quadrupled in just two years. The monthly minimum wage covers only 10 per cent of the monthly minimum expenditure basket. Despite the rising costs of essential goods, income levels remained low, with the Syrian pound depreciating by a staggering 73 per cent over two years. The impact is disproportionate with the already vulnerable and poor bearing the consequences leaving them with limited strategies to cope.
After briefly rebounding in the wake of the February 2023 earthquake, aid flows to Syria have declined and access to humanitarian assistance has become more challenging. The Brussels Conference “Supporting the future of Syria and the region” in May 2024 resulted in grants and pledges of 7.5 billion Euros, a decline of 20 per cent compared to 2023. The World Food Programme (WFP) in 2023 discontinued its broad-based monthly food assistance programme in Syria, and the monthly assistance was reduced by 80 per cent compared to early 2023. The assistance cuts have led to significant deterioration in food consumption and a rapid and immediate increase in households’ resilience on negative coping strategies to meet their food needs.
Tensions in the Middle East also escalated due to the conflict in Gaza. While the initial weeks of the conflict were highly unpredictable, the spill over of the conflict into Syria has largely been contained. However, targeted strikes continue in the southern and central parts of the country, with an increased number of strikes and aggressive actions unfolding in various regions, including in residential areas in Damascus and Homs.
Despite humanitarian efforts, the situation in Syria continues to remain dire and is at risk of worsening even further.