Attachments
Key Messages
- Across Syria, outcomes aligned with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are likely ongoing and expected to persist through September. Multi-year drought, the impacts of the 2011-2024 civil war and ongoing insecurity, and weak economic conditions are key shocks. Repeated poor rainfall seasons have reduced cereal production, degraded rangelands, and weakened agricultural labor demand. Conflict-related damage to irrigation systems and infrastructure continues to constrain cultivation and economic activity, while periodic clashes, population displacement, and shifting territorial control disrupt market functionality and livelihoods. Limited foreign currency reserves and economic constraints are expected to restrict import capacity, increasing the risk of national food supply shortfalls. Inflation and weak labor demand will continue to constrain access to food countrywide.
- The population in need of food assistance is currently estimated to be 6.0-6.99 million during the January-April lean season and is expected to decline modestly following summer harvests. Northwest (NWS) and Northeast (NES) Syria are areas of highest concern. Within these areas, internally displaced persons (IDPs) and returnees are of highest concern due to limited livelihood opportunities and high market reliance. Worst-off households in parts of NES and some internally displaced person (IDP) households in NWS likely face outcomes aligned with Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In NWS, recent flood damage and winter storms are leading to more severe outcomes. In NES, disruptions to the oil-linked economy following shifts in control of key oil assets have further reduced labor opportunities and household income.
- Through the end of the lean season in April, the exhaustion of food stocks from the 2025 harvests and seasonally high staple food prices will exacerbate constraints on food consumption. From June to September, wheat and vegetable harvests will offer modest relief for some rural households; however, below-average agricultural production, tight national food supplies, and weak household purchasing power are expected to limit area-level improvements.
The analysis in this report reflects information available as of February 27, 2026, and does not incorporate military developments involving Iran that began on February 28 or their broader regional implications. FEWS NET's analysis of the likely impacts on acute food insecurity will become available after March 31, 2026.