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Syria

Syria at the crossroads: Towards a stabilized transition [EN/AR]

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This report provides an in-depth analysis of the profound challenges facing the Syrian Arab Republic, and explores potential pathways for the country following the fall of the Assad regime. It examines the economic devastation that the years of conflict have caused, marked by a 64 per cent contraction in GDP, rampant inflation and widespread destruction of critical infrastructure. The compounding effects of prolonged conflict, sanctions, natural disasters and ongoing humanitarian crises have left millions of people displaced and in dire need of aid.

The report outlines three possible future scenarios: a stabilized transition, prolonged instability, and war and fragmentation. The “stabilized transition” scenario offers a hopeful outlook characterized by inclusive governance, economic revitalization and robust international cooperation, forecasting significant GDP growth and a notable reduction in poverty rates. Achieving this best-case scenario, however, will require entrenched divisions to be overcome and state institutions to be rebuilt, as well as the provision of substantial global and regional support. The middle-ground scenario, “prolonged instability”, is less optimistic, forecasting a limited economic recovery, continued fragmentation of governance structures, and persistent poverty. The “war and fragmentation” scenario is less optimistic still: it predicts further economic collapse and poverty, severe social fragmentation, an escalating humanitarian crisis, and broader regional instability. The bleak consequences of the latter two scenarios underscore the importance of prioritizing a peaceful and inclusive transition. With this in mind, the report emphasizes actionable policies focused on reconstruction, reconciliation and governance reform while highlighting the significance of sanctions relief and regional integration as essential drivers of sustainable recovery. By taking this comprehensive approach, the report aims to help the Syrian Arab Republic navigate the crossroads it has reached and lay the foundation for sustainable peace and development.