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Syria

Syria: Complex Emergency Operational Strategy MDRSY014

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DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT

The current context is defined by a shift in governing authority, marking the onset of a transitional period. This has triggered significant movements, including the return of Syrian refugees and returnees from abroad, especially neighboring countries such as Türkiye, Jordan, and Lebanon. Nevertheless, around 6 million are pending to return, while simultaneously prompting others to leave the country. The situation remains fluid, with continued uncertainty regarding governance structures, policies, and the security environment. This instability is expected to persist for weeks, potentially months, unless further escalation occurs, which could compound the crisis, increasing regional tensions and accelerating humanitarian needs.

Syria is facing a complex humanitarian crisis driven by prolonged conflict, economic collapse, and natural disasters. More than 90% of the population lives below the poverty line, with food

prices soaring and widespread unemployment leaving millions without stable livelihoods. The healthcare system is severely compromised, with over one-third of hospitals partially or fully non- operational, limiting access to essential medical services, particularly for maternal and neonatal care. Malnutrition is widespread, with 12.9 million people food insecure, and recent vaccination campaigns have been launched to curb disease outbreaks. Climate change further exacerbates vulnerabilities, with recurring droughts leading to water shortages, reduced agricultural output, and forced displacement. These pre-existing challenges have intensified the impact of the recent escalation of violence and shifting power dynamics, worsening humanitarian conditions.

The regional escalation (late 2024) has intensified insecurity, disrupted cross-border humanitarian operations, and strained already limited government resources, further hindering service provision and increasing displacement. Simultaneously, the February 2023 earthquake devastated northern Syria, displacing thousands and severely damaging critical health, WASH, and shelter infrastructure, which remains unrecovered and in poor condition. The December 2024 political transition introduced additional uncertainty, as the new leadership struggles with governance challenges, economic decline, and complex regional dynamics. These overlapping crises have left millions in extreme vulnerability, pushing families toward negative coping mechanisms such as reduced food consumption and other coping strategies.

The crisis spans all regions of Syria, with particularly acute needs in northwest Syria, where recent earthquakes compounded existing vulnerabilities. As of January 2025, approximately 17 million people require humanitarian assistance, with 7.4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) 1 and 6.2 million refugees in neighboring countries. The escalation in late 2024 triggered additional displacement, with over 1.1 million newly displaced individuals and approximately 682,844 IDP returnees 2 . Infrastructure damage is extensive, with critical facilities such as roads, bridges, hospitals, and schools destroyed or rendered non-functional, further limiting access to essential services. The humanitarian response continues to be hampered by security concerns and operational challenges, leading to temporary suspensions of aid in certain areas. Meanwhile, the position on Syrian refugee returns is evolving, with several European countries implementing measures such as pausing asylum claims, revoking protection status, and incentivizing voluntary returns. The Syrian government’s response remains fluid, with efforts to navigate the shifting political landscape while addressing immediate humanitarian needs.