Attachments
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- Escalating violence between Assad loyalists and transitional government forces raise fear of widening sectarian conflict.
- Syria’s already troubled transition could be derailed if this violence spirals.
- The violence could halt international community efforts to provide aid and sanctions relief.
Monday, March 10, 2025
/ READ TIME: 5 minutes
By: Mona Yacoubian
Syria is witnessing the most significant sectarian violence since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024. Unverified estimates put the death toll over 1,000, with civilians comprising the vast majority of those killed. Clashes have largely been centered in Alawite strongholds along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, from the city of Tartus north to Latakia. The violence prompted large-scale protests in Damascus and other cities, while many anxious Alawite families have fled their homes along the coast. Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Shara, has called for “civil peace” and announced the launching of an independent committee to investigate the killings.
USIP’s Mona Yacoubian unpacks what this means for Syria’s stability and sectarian dynamics amid a fragile transition and how it will impact the country’s diplomatic standing.
What sparked these clashes and what do they augur for Syria’s stability?
Yacoubian: The clashes began following a sophisticated series of attacks on March 6 by Assad loyalists targeting transition government forces near the town of Jableh in Latakia governorate, an Alawite stronghold. (The Alawites are an offshoot of Shia Islam who dominated Syria under the Assad family, which hails from the sect.) The ambushes killed 13 transition security forces associated with Hayat Tahrir ash-Sham (HTS) and came as part of a growing trend of Assad loyalist violence against transition forces. The attacks then prompted a large-scale transition government response, with thousands of transition security forces deployed across wide swathes of Syria’s Alawite-dominated coastal region. Over the past few days, allegations are mounting of indiscriminate attacks by these forces on innocent civilians and looting of homes across numerous Alawite communities.
This bloodiest spate of violence since the Assad regime collapse in December could portend a significant challenge to Syria’s fragile stability, potentially a downward spiral into a cataclysm of sectarian violence. Specifically, the Assad loyalist attacks could be a harbinger of an Alawite insurgency taking root along Syria’s western coast. In the early days of seizing control, Shara and HTS granted amnesty to low-level Syrian army conscripts who turned in their weapons. However, an unknown number of more senior military, security and intelligence officials linked to the Assad regime likely went underground and could be attempting to launch a more organized insurgency. In addition, it is also possible that foreign governments, including Iran — a key ally of the Assad regime — are supporting these efforts with money and arms, although Tehran has denied those claims.
The Assad loyalist attacks could be a harbinger of an Alawite insurgency taking root along Syria’s western coast.
At the same time, Shara has encountered challenges with consolidating his control over disparate elements of HTS and other Sunni armed groups. More extreme elements, including foreign jihadist fighters and undisciplined armed factions are also part of the ecosystem of transition security forces. While specific perpetrators of atrocities have not been identified, these disparate, extreme elements could well be at the forefront of such actions. Taken together, an incipient Alawite insurgency coupled with the presence of radical Islamist factions among the transition government’s security forces committing atrocities against Syria’s Alawite minorities makes for an extremely dangerous moment in Syria — potentially Syria’s “Samarra moment” — reminiscent of Iraq’s turn toward deadly sectarian civil war following the 2006 al-Qaida attack on the Al-Askari mosque, a major Shia shrine in the Iraqi town of Samarra.
What are the implications for Syria’s transition and the country’s tenuous sectarian dynamics?
Yacoubian: Syria’s transition — already complicated and difficult — faces significant headwinds with the onset of serious sectarian violence. The country’s complex sectarian dynamics demand a broad, participatory approach to its political transition, with all communities feeling that they have a stake and are therefore vested in its success. Even prior to the recent outbreak of violence, concerns have been mounting that Shara’s efforts to include Syria’s minorities in a meaningful way are cosmetic at best. Last month’s two-day national dialogue has been criticized for not bringing in key actors such as the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces or taking measurable steps toward a real political transition, including establishing a timetable for elections and a new constitution.
Should it continue, indiscriminate violence against Alawites will derail Syria’s shaky transition. Security force overreach and the perception — if not reality — that Syria’s Alawite community is subject to brutal revenge killings will undermine more broadly the sense of security and belonging for all of Syria’s minority groups, including Christian, Kurdish and Druze communities. Moreover, transitional justice initiatives and accountability measures designed to address the decades of Assad regime brutality will be undermined and will fail to bring about lasting reconciliation in the face of new charges of communal retribution and killings.
How has the international community responded and what could this mean for the interim government’s diplomatic standing?
Yacoubian: The international community has responded with growing alarm to the spiraling violence in Syria. The U.S. State Department issued a statement on March 9 condemning “the radical Islamist terrorists, including foreign jihadis, that murdered people in western Syria in recent days.” The statement likely foreshadows the United States government’s deepening reluctance to provide additional sanctions relief to the Shara transition government, barring successful efforts to quell the violence and hold perpetrators to account. The United Nations has also raised concerns about the violence, calling for an immediate cessation to the killing of civilians. Beyond undermining Syria’s fragile stability and transition efforts, the spiraling violence threatens to halt broader measures by the international community to provide much-needed aid and sanctions relief to the war-torn country, further imperiling Syria’s future.