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Sari Global: Escalating conflict in Syria’s coastal region; displacement and spillover risks to Lebanon - March 10, 2025

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Syria has witnessed a surge in violent unrest following the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad in late 2024.
Clashes in the coastal governorates of Latakia and Tartous between alleged pro-Assad loyalists and the interim government forces have intensified, with civilian populations—particularly from the Alawite sect— bearing the brunt of the violence. This spike in hostilities has triggered a wave of displacement into neighboring Lebanon, placing additional pressures on a country already grappling with its own socio-economic crises. Tensions have escalated further due to an incident in al-Aaqbiya, southern Lebanon, where an altercation between locals and Syrian refugees resulted in gunfire and the burning of refugee tents. This report examines the key developments in Syria’s coastal conflict, the resulting refugee flows, the risks of spillover into Lebanon, and the challenges NGOs face in accessing and supporting both Syrian and Lebanese communities.