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This Regional Analysis of the Syria conflict (RAS) is a ‘light’ version of the March RAS and provides information on key developments during the month of April while continuing to highlight the priority concerns. The next full version of the RAS will be published on 30 May. The next light version will be in August. The RAS seeks to bring together information from all sources in the region and provide holistic analysis of the overall Syria crisis. The Syria Needs Analysis Project welcomes all information that could complement this report. For more information, comments or questions please email SNAP@ACAPS.org.

Overview

Within Syria fighting is reported in all governorates except in As Sweida and Tartous, with conflict reigniting in Hama after a lull of six months. Intense fighting in Dar’a has seen opposition forces secure access to Jordan while indiscriminate attacks on densely populated areas continue, particularly in the urban centres of Aleppo, Dar’a, Idleb and around the city of Damascus.

Humanitarian access to the affected population is decreasing for international organisations as bureaucratic obstacles and insecurity hamper access. Meanwhile the overall humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with an estimated 6.8 million people in need of support a third of whom are in Aleppo governorate. Human rights violations are, reportedly, on the increase.

With recent assessments shedding a clearer picture of needs in many areas, the need to significantly increase the delivery of humanitarian items, especially to areas in which humanitarian agencies are operating, is a priority. The Emergency Relief Coordinator, Valerie Amos, requested the Security Council authorise cross-border access.

The toll refugees are taking on host countries has prompted the Government of Jordan to join Lebanon in calling for the creation of a humanitarian zone in Syria. Syrian refugees are not reported to be suffering from high rates of mortality or acute malnutrition and disease outbreaks have, to date, been limited. However, the increasing strain on host country health services is a major challenge to the host governments as well as restricting refugee access to treatment needed - particularly those with chronic and other costly health conditions Measles cases among Syrian refugees have been reported in Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan, increasing fears of a measles outbreak in areas with large refugee concentrations.

There are indications that tensions between refugees and host communities are increasing, particularly in areas where there are larger concentrations of Syrian refugees. Hundreds of spontaneous tented settlements throughout Lebanon illustrate the difficulties faced by refugees to identify suitable shelter. No progress has been made in identifying sites for the transit camps in Lebanon but additional camps in Jordan and Turkey are under construction.

The conflict is increasingly spilling over to neighbouring countries, with shelling the Lebanese border areas. Anti-Government forces have threatened to ‘move conflict into Lebanon’ if Hezbollah does not withdraw its support to the regime.