ReliefWeb

Overview

This Regional Analysis of the Syria Conflict (RAS) is an update of the December RAS. The RAS seeks to bring together information from all sources in the region and provide a coherent analysis of the overall situation in the region as well as in each of the affected countries. While Part I focuses on the situation within Syria, Part II covers the impact of the crisis on the neighbouring countries. In addition, this report highlights the key humanitarian developments in 2013. The Syria Needs Analysis Project welcomes all information that could complement this report. For additional information, comments or questions please email SNAP@ACAPS.org.

Access: 2013 saw the number of people in need in Syria increase from 4 million to over 9 million, while the number of refugees registered with UNHCR in neighbouring countries increased from around 550,000 to 2,300,000. While needs have increased across all sectors, the humanitarian response has not been able to scale up accordingly, constrained by insecurity, funding and capacity.

Within Syria the number of people in hard to reach areas increased from 2.7 million in July to 3 million in January 2014 while access constraints continue to impede the delivery of humanitarian aid mostly in northern governorates and the outskirts of Damascus. In Rural Damascus, recent localised negotiations allowed for limited amounts of humanitarian aid to enter Madamiyet Elsham, Barzeh and Yarmouk and some evacuation of the critically ill.

Humanitarian access was one of the main issues raised during the Geneva II peace talks that started on 22 January, bringing Government of Syria (GoS) representatives and opposition leaders together for the first time. Despite heated debates and firm requests from other nations, no progress on the issue was made. On the ground in Syria, humanitarian access continues to shrink with the conflict between opposition groups having opened up new battlefronts since early January. Further high-level meetings have been scheduled in attempts to reach agreements and improve the humanitarian space.

Protection: The relentless bombardment of Aleppo by the Syrian Armed Forces (SAF) mark an increase in the use of indiscriminate weapons, with barrel-bombs dropped on opposition-held areas daily for over a month. Rural Damascus, Damascus city and Dar’a have also been subject to barrel-bombs in recent weeks. Due to the widespread fighting, an estimated 6,000 people have been killed in January alone.

UNFPA has reported anecdotal evidence of an increase in gender-based violence in areas of conflict and among communities of internally displaced persons. This could in part be a consequence of the extreme pressures Syrians are facing in terms of insecurity and financial degradation. In Al-Hasakeh governorate, a women’s protection group reported growing incidents of SGBV at the hands of extremist armed groups in the area.

Once verified, the photos of thousands of incidents of torture and executions that were allegedly smuggled out of the country by a GoS defector could provide concrete evidence of the widespread use of torture by the GoS. New atrocities against prisoners in captivity have reportedly occurred during fighting between a newly formed alliance of opposition groups and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).

For refugees in host countries, their vulnerability to protection concerns has increased with the longevity of the crisis. In Lebanon, many have over-stayed the initial 1-year residency visa granted on arrival and are often unable to pay the required renewal fees. While refoulement has not yet occurred, refugees living irregularly in Lebanon face difficulties accessing the justice system and are unable to move through the increasing number of checkpoints, which in turn stops them from accessing aid distribution points.
Health: Despite the on-going polio immunisation campaign in Syria and the region, the spread of polio continues to be a major concern as 1 additional case was confirmed in Al-Hasakeh and suspected cases have been identified by humanitarian organisations. Other major outbreaks appear to have been contained, although the continuing erosion of both the public health system and people’s coping mechanisms, coupled with poor water supplies and low vaccination coverage indicate a high risk of disease outbreaks in Syria. Cases of tuberculosis have been reported in Jordan and Turkey and health services are increasingly stretched, especially in Lebanon. As their financial resources have dwindled, refugees’ access to healthcare has also suffered in host-countries, with many not being able to afford the transportation costs to a healthcare provider, let alone the bills for treatment and medicine. As a result, many refugees are foregoing preventive care and instead accessing health services only once health problems become critical and, therefore, more expensive to address. Several assessments have indicated that refugees in Lebanon are returning to Syria for treatment and medication, as prices are considerably lower. They are thus risking their own safety and putting further pressure on the remaining and exceedingly stretched services within Syria.

Spill-over: As countries in the region are highly inter-connected, events in Syria have an immediate backlash on the situation in its neighbours, particularly in Lebanon in Turkey. This month, Lebanon has seen multiple rocket attacks and car bombs as a direct or in-direct consequence of the crisis in Syria.
Negotiations: Peace talks in Geneva ended without tangible results and a solution to the crisis seems remote. Although efforts are underway to improve the capacity of host-countries to cope with the protracted crisis, further integration of Syrian refugees into host-communities is hampered by the high number of refugees as well as restrictions posed by host governments on employment and legal residence.

Part I – Syria

Part II – Host Countries