Attachments
Overview
Since mid-January 2026, northern and eastern Syria has witnessed a rapid and far-reaching deterioration in the security landscape, marked by significant shifts in territorial control, military withdrawals, and expanding areas of active confrontation. These developments have fundamentally altered the balance of power across large parts of eastern Aleppo, Ar-Raqqa, and Deir ez-Zor governorates, generating widespread uncertainty and triggering new waves of displacement. Within this broader context, the city of Kobani has increasingly emerged as a focal point of concern, as military dynamics suggest a growing risk that may approach the city in the near term.
The escalation began with intensified military operations and control changes west of the Euphrates River, particularly in Deir Hafer, Maskana, Babiri, and surrounding rural areas, following the announced withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) elements toward the eastern bank of the river. These movements were accompanied by the advance of Syrian Ministry of Defense forces, the expansion of tribal control in large parts of Deir ez-Zor, and the withdrawal of SDF forces from key oil fields and strategic sites. While large-scale direct clashes were limited in some phases, the overall process unfolded in a fragmented and fluid manner, characterized by unclear lines of contact, competing narratives, and heightened civilian fear.
As control shifted rapidly across wide geographic areas, civilian populations were exposed to mounting protection risks, disrupted supply routes, and restricted movement. Crossings between areas of control were repeatedly closed, with limited humanitarian exemptions, and key transport corridors were rendered insecure or inaccessible. These conditions contributed to a substantial displacement of families from Ar-Raqqa, Tabqa, and surrounding rural areas, many of whom moved north and east toward Al-Hasakah, Qamishli, and others perceived safer locations under extremely harsh winter conditions. At the same time, reports indicate that some displaced families were unable to leave conflict-affected areas and remained temporarily sheltered in schools and public buildings, further underscoring the fragility of the humanitarian situation.
Within this evolving landscape, Kobani’s strategic location has heightened concerns regarding its exposure to potential military pressure. The city of approximately 400,000 residents sits at a critical junction between shifting fronts, supply lines, and areas of contested influence. Field information and community perceptions increasingly suggest fears of isolation or encirclement, with residents anticipating possible disruptions to access routes, essential services, and humanitarian assistance should hostilities advance closer to the city. Particularly concerning are reports that electricity in Kobani has been cut for four consecutive days, effectively shutting down the water network and creating a severe shortage. At the same time, long bread lines at the city’s few functioning bakeries underscore growing food insecurity and the strain on basic supplies. Although active fighting has not yet reached Kobani at the time of assessment, the anticipation of conflict has already begun to shape daily life, service provision, and coping strategies among residents.