Attachments
Context and rationale
Recent events that led to the fall of the Assad government on 8 December 2024 have caused a significant political shift in Syria. After thirteen years of conflict marked by repeated displacements, economic stagnation and inadequate basic services, this new reality offers opportunities for an inclusive transition, including the potential for returns of IDPs to their areas of origin (AoO).
In this context, providing humanitarian actors with updated, reliable data on IDPs' movement intentions is crucial to enable safe and dignified returns. Building on a similar exercise from December 2024, this factsheet presents updated findings on IDPs' intentions and factors influencing their movement decisions.
Key messages
• Only a small minority (11%) of IDPs reported the intention to return to their areas of origin (AoO), and almost one in four IDP HHs was undecided.
• Access to livelihoods and basic services, both in current locations and in AoO, are key factors influencing IDPs' decision to return. For those not intending to stay, the lack of these services was seen as both a barrier for return and a condition that must be met. Conversely, for IDPs considering a return, improved access to these services in their AoO was a strong pull factor.
• Most IDPs willing to return are planning it for the first half of 2025. In Areesha, up to 20% of IDPs mentioned the intention to return within 3 to 6 months.
• The vast majority of returns (78%) are expected in areas of the Deir-Ez-Zor governorate. Further analysis on areas of returns could help better understand living conditions and needs of new returnees.