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Returns Trends
Following the fall of the Assad Government on 8 December 2024, UNHCR observed a marked increase in both refugee returns to Syria and intentions to return. A Flash Regional Perception and Intention Survey conducted in January 2025 found that 40% of Syrian refugees in Jordan expressed plans to return within the year. Despite this, many refugees continued to cite ongoing concerns about security conditions and limited livelihood opportunities in Syria.
Initial reactions to the political change were marked by cautious optimism, with many refugees expressing hope for the possibility of return for the first time in over a decade. However, as they began to assess the practical realities on the ground, this optimism was tempered, including by a series of major security incidents which contributed to a noticeable slowdown in returns. The unpredictability of the situation and has led to fluctuating return trends throughout the first half of 2025.
In the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, approximately 45,000 UNHCR-registered Syrian refugees returned. January and February saw the highest return levels, averaging around 700 individuals crossing daily. In March, return numbers declined to below 200 per day, largely due to Ramadan. This downward trend continued through April and May before rising sharply in June, coinciding with the end of the academic year - a factor frequently mentioned by refugees in discussions with UNHCR and partners. Approximately 51,000 returns were recorded in Q2.
From 08 December 2024 to 30 June 2025, more than 100,000 UNHCR registered Syrian refugees returned home.1 Of these, 56% returned as full families, while 44% returned through staggered or partial family movements. While UNHCR encourages families to return together, it recognizes that phased returns may support reintegration depending on individual circumstances. These dynamics naturally raise questions around the protection of children. Available data suggests that the number of children temporarily left behind is low, though verification is continuing. UNHCR’s child protection teams work closely with authorities to ensure that any child remaining behind has a legally documented guardian, typically registered through Sharia courts.