ReliefWeb

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

• Prospects for 2012 winter cereal crops is uncertain following escalation of conflict

• Growing concern over the impact of prolonged civil unrest on the food security situation, especially of vulnerable groups

• Food inflation escalates since end of 2011

• High cereal import requirements forecast for 2012/13 (July/June) marketing year following expected reduction in domestic production

Uncertain prospects for current crops

A combination of drought conditions, insecurity and rising input and fuel prices has jeopardised prospects for the 2012 winter cereal crops. Poor rains affected major rainfed crops in Al Hasakah and Al Raqqah in the north and north-east while insufficient input supply and high labour costs affected agricultural activities. The civil insecurity that prevailed in most parts of the country prevented many farmers from accessing their farmland during important stages of crop development and harvest. In addition, lack of fuel to operate irrigation pumps and other equipment, as well as shortage of harvesters resulted in large un-harvested croplands.

The last forecast from an Agriculture Ministry official in May 2012 put wheat production at an above average 3.7 million tonnes and barley at 843 000 tonnes. However, current forecasts indicate a well below average cereal harvest in 2012 following the escalation of civil unrest and conflict that is hampering normal agricultural activities.

Syria's state-run General Establishment for Cereal Processing and Trade (Hoboob) has so far this year procured 1.25 million tonnes of wheat from local farmers. According to reports, the purchasing period that started on May 25 and is expected to end on August 15 targets the procurement of between 2.2 million to 2.4 million tonnes of local wheat.

Cereal import requirements expected to increase in current 2012/13 marketing year

Syria normally relies heavily on food imports amounting to almost half of the total domestic utilization. In 2012, given the poor outlook for domestic cereal production, the cereal import requirement - mainly wheat for food use and maize and barley for feed - in marketing year 2012/13 (July/June) may reach as high as 5 million tonnes, almost one and half million tonnes more than the previous year.

Food price inflation soars to record levels since end-2011

According to data from the Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics, the country’s year-on-year inflation rate stood at 32.5 percent in May 2012, mainly driven by sharp increases in food prices and by fuel shortages that are impacting on transportation costs. The food inflation reached over 40 percent in May 2012.

Prices of bread and cereals, major staples in the local diet increased sharply with a year-on-year inflation rate of about 36 percent in May 2012 (5 percent on April 2012).

Total unemployment rate in Syria has increased from about 12 percent to 25 percent, and a large share of population is displaced. High unemployment levels coupled with high inflation rates seriously impacted the purchasing power of the population.

Civil unrest aggravates food insecurity

Continued civil unrest since mid-March 2011 has raised serious concern over the state of food security, particularly for vulnerable groups. Following the unrest, the economy in 2011 contracted by 3.4 percent. For 2012 the government expects a growth between 0 and 2 percent, while external sources expect a large contraction of over 8 percent. The economy continues to be under pressure from international sanctions which include an embargo on oil exports as well as restrictions on international trade, investment and financial transactions. Imports of agricultural commodities to Syria are affected by inability to finance imports as a result of restrictions.

The Government’s fiscal capacity to support producer and consumer subsidy schemes has come under severe strain following the economic downturn and the international sanctions.

One million people in need of humanitarian assistance

According to the findings of an assessment led by the government together with the United Nations and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in March 2012, an estimated one million Syrians are in need of humanitarian assistance. This figure includes people that have been directly affected by the civil unrest such as IDPs, those who have lost access to essential services (essentially security, food, health and education) and host families.

The WFP assistance reached 850 000 people in July 2012, up from 200 000 in March. Additional assistance is provided to Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq.