Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Dry weather conditions and security concerns hamper cereal production in 2025
- Cereal production in 2024 estimated below average
- Economic instability raises uncertainty for cereal import requirements in 2025
- Food insecurity expected to persist in 2025 despite decline in food prices
Dry weather conditions and security concerns hamper cereal production in 2025
Winter cereal planting of 2025 was delayed due to late rainfall in November 2024 and was severely disrupted by ongoing conflicts, population displacements, the government’s transition in late 2024 and early season drought between November 2024 and January 2025. With harvesting expected to begin in June 2025, limited access to fields and low rainfall amounts are anticipated to reduce both planted area and yield prospects, pointing to a below-average cereal production forecast in 2025. Furthermore, high input costs, including fuel and fertilizers, have discouraged farmers from growing cereals, prompting a shift to more profitable crops, including anise, cumin, black seed and coriander.
Cereal production in 2024 estimated below average
Cereal production in 2024 is estimated at 3.4 million tonnes, about 13 percent below the five-year average and about 33 percent below the pre-crisis average, mainly due to poor rainfall distribution throughout the season, high temperatures during the growing period in April and May 2024, outbreaks of diseases and high prices of essential inputs.
Economic instability raises uncertainty for cereal import requirements in 2025
Wheat import requirements for the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are tentatively forecast slightly above the five-year average, considering the low 2024 wheat production. However, economic uncertainty, national currency fluctuations and internal unrest, raise challenges for the country to secure wheat imports in 2025.
Food insecurity expected to persist in 2025 despite decline in food prices
In 2025, more than half of the population is estimated to be food insecure, including 9.1 million people being acutely food insecure.
In January 2025, the national average monthly Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) for a family of five was around SYP 2.5 million, a decline of nearly 15 percent from the previous month, marking the lowest rate in one year. The minimum wage of about SYP 280 000/month covers only about 18 percent of the MEB’s food component, severely weakening households’ purchasing power and food security. The slight decrease in food prices was driven by a drop in the local exchange rate in the parallel market, eased import restrictions that increased food supply and the removal of military checkpoints on key routes, which facilitated a faster flow of goods and helped reduce transport costs.