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SITUATION OVERVIEW
By mid-October 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center had declared La Niña conditions, which are expected to persist until February/March 2026 (NOAA 08/01/2026). La Niña, together with El Niño, is one of the two extreme phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon – a natural climate variability occurrence characterised by oscillations in the sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Both El Niño and La Niña are associated with temperature and precipitation anomalies across the world, and more detailed information on El Niño–Southern Oscillation and La Niña can be found in our La Niña impact report for 2024–2025 (IRI accessed 11/11/2025).
La Niña typically brings reduced precipitation across West Asia during autumn, winter, and spring, significantly heightening drought risks in vulnerable areas (FEWS NET 2020; Alizadeh and Mousavizadeh 24/11/2024; Zoljoodi and Didevarasl 01/2013). The region is already experiencing more frequent and intense droughts, largely attributed to increasing temperatures and human-induced climate change, which are compounding socioeconomic water stressors, threatening food, water security, and stability, and enhancing social inequalities (WWA 08/11/2023; ISPI 18/12/2025).
Between October–November 2025, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria experienced below-average precipitation, affecting the start of the rainy season. Between late December 2025 and January 2026, rainfall across northern Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and large parts of Syria brought some relief to dry conditions, which may support crop development in 2026. Between December–January, northern Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and northern Syria also experienced heavy precipitation events, cold waves, and localised flooding, indicating increasing exposure to climate extremes (The New Arab 21/01/2026; IFRC 22/12/2025; ECHO 29/01/2026; NASA 08/12/2021).
Precipitation levels will be likely insufficient to fully replenish water reserves depleted by the exceptionally dry conditions in 2024–2025, however, potentially extending water scarcity into 2026 (ECMWF accessed 21/01/2026; GEOGLAM 04/12/2025; WFP 12/2025).
Seasonal forecasts anticipate near-normal precipitation between February–June 2026, but indicate a high probability of above-average temperatures during the same period (WMO accessed 09/01/2026; IRI accessed 09/01/2026; 3CS accessed 09/01/2026). This will increase evapotranspiration and challenge vegetation recovery from the 2025 drought, while irrigation is likely to be affected by low water reserves, leading to a reduction in agricultural outputs, especially wheat (GEOGLAM 12/2025). If January–March 2026 rainfall fails to sufficiently replenish reserves, water scarcity may continue challenging access to domestic water during the dry summer months (June–September). Combined with above-average temperatures, this may heighten risks of waterborne diseases.
Drought is also fuelling community-level tensions, compounding inter- and intra-community disputes over water and land access, particularly in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. Southern Iraq saw an upward trend of water-related protests, demonstrations, and riots in 2025 (MEI/NUS 29/04/2025; ACLED accessed 15/12/2025).