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At the end of 2025, the Syria situation remains one of the largest displacement crises globally, with around 11 million Syrians forcibly displaced, including around 4.5 million Syrian refugees hosted in neighbouring countries,1 amid active conflicts, natural and climate change-related disasters, and deteriorating socio-economic and humanitarian conditions.
Up to nine out of ten Syrian refugees grapple with challenges in meeting their basic needs, while the support needed by host communities has reached unprecedented levels.2 Overall, in 2026, more than 10.8 million people in Lebanon, Jordan, and Türkiye are estimated to be in need of some form of humanitarian and development assistance. In 2025, an estimated 16.5 million people inside Syria needed humanitarian assistance, including 7.1 million who were internally displaced.3 However, the political change and uprecedented developments in Syria that led to the fall of the Assad government in December 2024 have dramatically impacted the lives of millions of Syrians, both within and outside the country. The new situation simultaneously presents potential opportunities for return, while exacerbating risks of new displacement.
Undoubtedly, there has been an increase in Syrian refugees expressing a desire to return home. The most recent Enhanced Refugee Perceptions and Intentions Survey (ERPIS), published in September 2025, indicates that 80% of refugees hope to return one day, with 18% expressing the intention to do so within the next year.
Most refugees returned in the spring season and after the end of the school year. By the end of November 2025, over 1.2 million Syrians had already returned.4 At the same time, new displacement continues. In the first half of 2025, over 100,000 Syrians fled into Lebanon, mainly from Homs, Hama, Rural Damascus, and Idlib, underscoring that while the political transition has opened opportunities for return, significant protection risks remain.