Attachments
Highlights
· The current growing season (May-October 2015) in the Greater Horn of Africa is unfolding under an evolving El Nino event that will peak in late 2015.
· In Ethiopia the first (Belg) season was affected by a severe drought leading to poor crop production and pasture. This has stressed households at the onset of the main season (Meher) covering June to October.
· Above average rainfall during the early stages of the main season improved pasture and initial crop planting conditions across the region. However, starting from late June, drier than average conditions settled across Sudan, from Darfur to the eastern grain producing areas. Northern Ethiopia and regions already hit by the Belg season failures were also affected. First signs of dryness are affecting South Sudan.
· There is still scope for recovery, provided rainfalls improve in August and September. However, seasonal rainfall forecasts for this period are markedly pessimistic, providing strong probabilities of below average rainfall across the region.
· Areas of most concern in case the forecasts are realized include Ethiopia which may face two consecutive poor growing seasons and South Sudan where effects of even a moderately poor cropping season could be exacerbated by the conflict.